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A股投资两大热点主线呼之欲出

2017-09-11 07:37:38   中国经济网

对于投资机会,华泰证券表示,即便没有环保限产,电解铝、化学原料等行业也正自发进入资本开支扩张周期(中周期),且存货消化、产能利用情况向好。参考“供给侧”改革后的钢铁行业,此次环保限产在供给端的产能去化进一步改善了供需关系,延长价格修复,盈利中周期的修复迎来了政策面的共振,持续性进一步增强。继续推荐“金色化工”(金融/有色金属/化学原料/工程机械)。

国泰君安及中信建投证券一致看好环保产业,市场普遍关注的是环保对整体成本的抬升,但对环保达标的企业而言,相对竞争成本反而降低。行业集中度提升,达标企业中的龙头企业优势进一步显现。推荐关注危废处置、黑臭河道治理与在线监测三条主线。

安信证券表示,重点推荐焦煤、钢铁、电解铝、稀土、化工,金融板块首选券商;同时关注中小创的优质成长股。

券商看盘

安信证券:

周期股是本轮行情的核心

安信证券表示,目前上证综指已经站上3300点新的平台,A股市场已完成休整,重新进入震荡向上格局,因此券商相对银行、保险占优;在“十九大”即将召开的窗口期间,市场维稳预期依然较为强烈,除金融外其他风格博弈程度相对明显外,这就意味着在“十九大”召开前金融股作为市场权重的核心支撑能有相对稳定的表现。周期资产负债率降低带动银行估值提升继续,金融股表现可期。

此外,证金公司增持、IPO常态化且并购提速、叠加创业板估值处于自身底部,多重利好或推动结构性成长反弹,优先关注中报中小创优质公司。值得注意的是,当下金融行业已经充分适应金融强监管的步调,去杠杆负面效应式微,逐步回归传统业务模式,盈利修复贯穿全面,龙头业绩更加确定。无论自上而下还是自下而上,我们都坚定认为金融行业正迎来新的发展机遇。

周期股是本轮行情的核心,这个阶段选择板块看正面逻辑,从盈利到估值当前周期板块正面逻辑最多最强,同时周期股的负面逻辑——9月供给端的政策调整与需求端显著下行都不会出现。行业配置建议:克服恐高,周期依然美好。9月建议关注周期+金融,克服周期恐高。重点推荐焦煤、钢铁、电解铝、稀土、化工,金融板块首选券商;同时关注中小创的优质成长股。

中信建投证券:

以股债双丰迎接“金九银十”

受益于金融股、周期股板块上涨,因此市场上出现了“股债双丰”的局面。中信建投证券表示,整体来看,转债市场在正股强势的表现下,股性开始凸显,大部分转债都有所上涨,建议持有股性较强的转债,博取股价上升带来的收益。

A股市场一路高歌猛进,市场热点方面,国企混改概念股活跃度仍然非常高,沉寂已久的次新股也有个股接连涨停,科技板块中的人工智能、环保等概念股亦有不错表现。

未来牛市行情有望延续,看多的原因主要有:1.经济下行风险可控,8月制造业PMI较7月回升0.3%至51.7%,生产、需求进一步扩张,企业库存有所下降;2.由于美国经济走弱、人民币升值带来的新兴市场溢价,境外资金的涌入将会为股市增加流动性;3.领涨的周期股是有业绩支撑的,煤炭、钢铁等产品价格上行的持续性超出了市场预期。综上所述,未来股市还有一定上升空间,市场对中报的反应比较积极,前期横盘震荡的金融股受益于行业盈利的好转,已是第二波上涨的周期股则需要提防回调风险;另外,投资者也可关注业绩优良的次新股、国企混改的概念股等。

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