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工程机械行业“暖风”依旧

2017-09-08 21:26:46   中国经济网

大幅增长的产品销售数据以及行业整体好转的经营业绩都预示着机械行业的“暖风”将要持续,三一重工8月30日的股价下跌或许仅仅是个“例外”。

“涨”有多因

半年报业绩的大幅高增长与前期工程机械处于行业周期低谷有一定关系。Wind数据显示,工程机械行业的固定资产规模自2011年开始出现增幅下滑趋势,从2013年起增幅显著下滑,直至2015年底和2016年初降至最低点。

基建和房地产是工程机械应用的核心领域,也是推动这波销量上涨的最主要动力。根据国家统计局的数据,2017年1-7月份,全国基础设施投资7.21万亿元,同比增长20.9%,比上年同期提高1.3个百分点;施工项目计划总投资98.59万亿元,同比增长19.7%。上半年,全国建筑业总产值为8.59万亿元,同比增长10.9%,全国建筑业房屋建筑施工面积97亿平方米,同比增长3.5%;全国房地产开发投资5.06万亿元,同比增长8.5%。

对比后可以发现,基础建设比房地产投资更能促进工程机械行业的发展。

广发证券分析认为,过去地产需求可以主导挖掘机销量走势,但地产和基建的贡献比例从2012年的0.93:1降低到2016年的0.67:1,地产需求贡献在逐步减弱,非地产因素(例如基建、矿山、PPP项目等)的贡献正在提升;从挖掘机销量的结构特征和区域特征发现,2016年下半年以来,大型基建项目、矿山和PPP项目提供了充足的增量需求。

“一带一路”也为行业发展吹来了东风。在“一带一路”战略快速推进的背景下,许多公司迎来海外发展的重要战略窗口。

2017年上半年,三一重工深耕“一带一路”战略,公司国际业务稳步推进,实现国际销售收入57.99亿元,同比增长25.9%。

徐工机械上半年海外市场表现强劲,一带一路国家市场出口收入同比大幅增长,重点突破的非洲区出口收入翻番增长;产品方面,铲运机械突围海外,出口同比增长96%。

下半年业绩可期

除“一带一路”助力工程机械的发展外,大基建也为行业发展送来一份大礼。

2017年的中央《政府工作报告》对于基础设施建设领域释放了两点重要信号:一是基建投入仍将是2017年稳增长的重要手段,报告指出:“2017年要启动一批‘十三五’规划重大项目,完成铁路投资8000亿元以上、公路投资1.65万亿元,再开工20项重大水利工程,建设水电核电、特高压输电、智能电网、油气管网、城市轨道交通等重大项目。”

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