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华创证券:十大视角解读A股2017年半年报

2017-09-06 08:37:36   新华网

分行业来看,总现金流占比仅制造业上游行业较去年同期略有改善,中下游行业现金流状况不及往年同期,三者经营性现金流占比均较去年同期走低。中下游行业投资活动现金流占比有所改善,上游行业筹资活动现金流占比较去年同期略有回升。

从商誉同比增速来看,创业板商誉的增长高峰期在2013年三季度至2016年三季度期间,最高增速达3.09%;中小板的商誉高峰期在2014年三季度至2016三季度期间,顶点增速达1.57%;2016年末开始中小创板块商誉增速放缓,2017二季度中小创商誉分别为2977.57亿元、2273.35亿元,同比增速仅为0.46%、0.54%。从商誉占净利润比的绝对值来看,创业板商誉占净利润比要高于中小板,一旦并购标的业绩承诺未完成,计提商誉减值,创业板受到的冲击要大于中小板。整体来看,并购重组的高峰期在2014年至2016年期间,未来商誉减值若集中爆发,创业板将受较大影响。

 银行:资产质量改善 风险抵补能力稳健

不良贷款余额增速大幅下滑,银行资产质量有望改善。2017年一季度商业银行不良贷款余额为16358亿元,上半年累计增加1236亿元。虽不良贷款总额有所增加,但相较于2016年上半年来讲,同比增速仅为13.8%,而去年同期则为31.6%,不良贷款同比增速大幅下降。同时,二季度不良贷款资产占比为1.74%,连续三个季度持平。不良贷款率自去年高位稳中有降,银行资产质量有望进一步提升。

从上市公司方面来看,目前A股上市的25家银行的不良贷款率自去年二季度以来稳中趋降,这反映了商业银行资产质量下行情况基本得到了遏制,潜在风险有下降趋势。拨备覆盖率处于合理水平,风险抵补能力稳定。2017年上半年,商业银行贷款损失准备金余额较年初增长2307亿元达28983亿元,贷款损失准备金余额增速继续明显高于不良贷款增速,导致拨备覆盖率的增高。商业银行上半年的拨备覆盖率为177.18%,比去年同期的175.96%高出1.22个百分点。上市银行2017年一季度的拨备覆盖率为204.80%,较去年同期高15.46个百分点。当前商业银行拨备覆盖率高于监管要求的150%,商业银行风险抵补能力处于较为合理的区间,风险抵补能力仍处于稳健水平。

 保险:整体利润改善 内含价值同比回升

2017年一季度上市险企整体利润改善。二季度,中国平安、中国太保和中国人寿归母净利润同比均实现正增长,新华保险增速也较2016年二季度有所回升。业务质量改善明显,内含价值同比回升。2017年一季度上市险企内含价值均高于去年同期,其中新华保险(29.54%)、中国平安(25.97%)和中国太保(24.90%)内含价值同比增速均超过了20%。此外,新业务价值在一季度也有显著改善,中国平安、中国人寿和中国太保新业务价值较去年同期均有大幅上涨。2017年一季度上市保险公司投资收益率较2016年二季度有所回落,4家上市险企2017年一季度平均总投资收益率整体为4.78%,平均净投资收益率为4.9%,分别较2016年二季度回落0.38和0.26个百分点。

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