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“惨蛋”变成“火箭蛋”:蛋价2个月涨30%

2017-09-06 07:11:56   中国经济网

“但农产品主要看供给,供给这块是可以看得到的,环保只是影响价格的短期因素。”方科强调。

对于方科的观点,张文萍表示认同。“蛋价持续小幅走高的主要原因在于学校集中开学,多积极备货,鸡蛋市场迎来了短暂的需求小高峰,且后边有节假日支撑。”张文萍表示。

“此外,第三个原因为饲料成本问题。从鸡蛋饲料组成配比看,豆粕(20%)和玉米(60%)的占比大概在一比三左右。由于玉米这块减产的预期较强,支撑玉米的价格,那么对应过去对鸡蛋的价格也有一定的支撑。”方科补充说道。

此外,方科对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,蛋价对CPI影响不大,原因是CPI目前主要受制于猪价和油价。

《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,与鸡蛋价格的“忽冷忽热”相比,肉鸡的价格已是“冷”了很久。A股市场上,由于受上半年父母代及商品代鸡苗价格大幅下跌影响,主营相关业务的上市公司包括益生股份(002458,SZ)、民和股份(002234,SZ)等的业绩均出现不同程度的亏损。以益生股份为例,公司2017年上半年实现营业收入3.13亿元,同比下降60.78%,归属上市公司股东净利润为-1.20亿元。

不过,放眼未来,中泰证券分析师陈奇认为当前禽链板块景气度的大幅回升,使得禽链板块反弹的空间和时间进一步提升,估值体系到2017年底之前都不会有太大的扰动因素。

具体而言,陈奇表示受9月学校开学消费的刺激,鸡价会有一波补库存的拉动,而且今年鸡苗价格前期受到禽流感的抑制已久,当前禽流感影响逐渐消退,政府、工厂对于鸡肉的采购逐渐恢复。

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