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避险潮又生黄金大妈还复来 金价拿下1330

2017-09-04 09:35:56   中国经济网

避险潮去又潮回

一波未平,一波又起。

就在地缘局势风波未平之际,美国国会又拉响警报:9月29日之前,美国国会必须决定债务上限是否上调(fiscal showdown);9月30日之前,为了避免政府关门,必须通过开支法案。

而分析师告诉中国证券报记者,从现在到9月29日美国财政部“弹尽粮绝”前,参众两院共同处于会期的时间只有10余天,可供解决该问题的时间已经不多了。

高盛认为,政府关门的风险约为50%,对债务上限的担忧则相对较少,虽然这些财政辩论与更为广泛的议程没有直接联系,但难免会耗费额外的时间和精力,并且分散对税改这类问题的注意力。

王琎青表示,如果美国国会无法批准提高债务上限规模,美国政府将被迫关门,届时也将会带动金价上涨。不过,从近期美国国会一些大佬的讲话看,关门的可能性相对较小。如果美国政府不关门,将会削弱对黄金避险需求的刺激。

其实,围绕美国总统特朗普的一系列事件早已成为黄金市场相依随的机会和风险。

黄李强表示,美国7月份的议息会议纪要显示,部分官员认为美国虽然目前的通胀水平较低,但恢复到正常水平只是时间问题,不应该在通胀问题上耽误过多时间。并认为,在近期的议息会议上就应该会宣布“缩表”。不仅如此,美国加息是大势所趋,美元持续走弱及黄金反弹只是因为加息进程不及预期所致。但加息只会推迟,并不会终止,因此,黄金整体跌势仍难避免。从目前情况来看,9月份美联储议息会议上大概率会出台偏紧的货币政策,这对于黄金价格将产生压制。

国泰君安证券首席固定收益分析师覃汉表示,从去年开始,地缘等方面事件频发。不过资本市场均快速完成了“风险在线(risk on)”和“风险消散(risk off)”之间的切换,且很多时候这种切换甚至在日内就会完成,虽然突发事件频频上演,但其影响在趋向短期化。

1300美元攻守战

实际上,从7月中旬以来,COMEX期金便从阶段新低1204美元展开触底反弹,截至8月29日的高点1331.9美元,期间累计涨幅达10.62%。伴随着价格上涨,其总持仓量也“水涨船高”。数据显示,7月31日,黄金期货合约总持仓量为436962份,而到了8月25日,总持仓量已达到516831份,同期总持仓量增长了18.3%。

一般而言,当价格走高时总持仓量伴随一同上升,往往是期货市场看涨趋势的技术验证。按照目前价格,黄金处于今年的高点,且已经抹去了技术上的阻力,现在的目标已经达到了去年的最高点。

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