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新一轮债转股面临哪些障碍

2017-09-04 08:41:07   中国经济网

同时,在资产切割分离给资产管理公司之后,银行还将失去分享债转股企业经营效益好转后带来的潜在收益。由银行实施机构操作,商业银行作为债权方将掌握债转股的主导权,可使银行在合理分担债转股债权损失和财务负担的情况下,支持符合条件的企业债转股,并支持企业早日脱离困境,获得股权退出后的潜在收益。

新一轮债转股前景如何

根据民生证券的统计,截至2017年6月1日,本轮债转股共签约58个项目,涉及53家企业,签约总金额超过6100亿元。从债转股实施主体看,央企和民企转股金额占比分别为12%和2%,而省市地方国企占比高达86%,特别是省属地方国企,占据了全国债转股总金额的主体部分(84%)。

从行业分布看,煤炭和钢铁行业是“债转股”两大主要行业。其中,煤炭行业为 3360 亿元,钢铁行业 1716 亿元,合计 5076 亿元,占债转股项目的 83%以上。

这些数据表明,本轮债转股已取得较大进展。在《办法》发布之后,市场普遍预期,本轮债转股将加速推进。然而,这一目标的实现,仍可能面临以下几方面的障碍。

首先,地方国有企业负债率显著下降,债转股紧迫性有所缓和。通常来讲,相对于混改、债务展期、借新还旧等融资方式,债转股是短期陷入经营困境的企业为了生存下去,被迫选择的最后一条出路。如前文所述,地方国企是本轮债转股的重点,在本轮债转股酝酿提出之初(2015年下半年),地方国企的资产负债率高达65%,经过两年来的去产能和去杠杆政策,今年6月末地方国企资产负债率已降至62.72%,显著低于此轮国有企业加杠杆之初的负债率。因此,从资产负债率角度看,地方国企参与债转股的紧迫性在下降。

其次,钢铁、煤炭等工业企业盈利状况明显改善。钢铁、煤炭是本轮债转股的主要行业。自2016年下半年以来,在需求端价格上涨推动下,两大行业盈利状况显著改善。具体看,全国钢材价格指数最高涨幅接近翻番,相应地,今年上半年钢铁行业利润总额228.8亿元,同比增长76.8%。与此同时,过去一年内煤炭价格的大幅上涨,使得今年上半年煤炭行业利润总额高达1474.7亿元,同比增长1968%。而在本轮债转股提出之初,煤炭、钢铁等行业无论是产品价格还是行业的整体盈利水平,都处于历史低谷水平。可见,相对于两年前的行业低谷,企业盈利状况的改善,将使得钢铁、煤炭等产业推进债转股的意愿下降。

再次,银行、企业推进债转股意愿一直不高。对于银行、企业来说,债转股是解决债权债务关系、避免企业破产和银行不良资产的最后一条途径。因此,债权银行和债务企业参与债转股的意愿一直不高,原因可能有两方面:

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