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太原煤炭交易中心官微显示,进入9月份,随着南方气温下降,雨水增多,火电厂负荷下降,预计沿海电厂日耗将出现大幅下降,沿海煤炭市场将逐渐恢复平静。截至8月29日,沿海六大火电日耗为71.39万吨,库存总量1096.36万吨,库存可用天数15.4天。发电企业不再急于大量补库存,对于长协煤的拉运倾向使得高价煤的需求不断下降,加上临近月末,下游电厂对煤炭采购维持谨慎态度。
有贸易商表示,近期港口贸易商报价比较高,但实际交易价格与报价还有5-10元的差距。眼下市场整体相对稳定,市场参与者看法有一定分歧。由于目前煤价已经处于较高位水平,再次上涨的幅度将会有所限制。在主产地煤炭供给增幅不明显,下游需求良好的情况下,煤价大跌的可能性也较小,短期内价格以稳为主。
此外,随着四季度矿山发货高峰来临,加上取暖季京津冀高炉限产50%,铁矿石供大于求矛盾可能加剧,价格料将承压回落。
生意社总编、中国大宗商品发展研究中心秘书长刘心田此前接受记者采访时就认为,本轮商品期货大涨呈现了“接力棒”式行情,黑色系带动有色,再对化工商品形成拉动。7、8月份价格上涨,其实是对“金九银十”行情的提前显现。目前看来本轮涨幅速度过快,行情过猛,已经把此后的利好透支掉了。不过他认为,市场即使回调也不会全盘下滑,只是本轮商品涨势过猛、涨速过快不符合当前经济发展的节奏,后期这种暴涨暴跌的现象将会减少。记者 赵黎昀
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