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博时基金桂征辉:中证500指数估值正处于合理区间

2017-08-31 14:11:20   中国经济网

这几年在成熟市场,基金规模增长最大的类型就是指数基金,对于中国市场,这个趋势也在慢慢显现,美国标普500指数一直上涨,尽管估值并不便宜,但成熟市场的上市公司盈利能力依旧能够撑得起每年8-10个点的上涨,从这个角度来说,目前中国市场依旧处于非完全理性的市场,散户占比较高,短视性依旧存在,导致市场波动性远大于成熟市场。但我们也要看到,从长期来看,wind数据显示,自沪深300成立以来至8月24日,其累计涨幅标普500的2倍多,所以我们的指数基金不做择时,因为从长期来看,择时的贡献比较小,而且不确定性较高。同时,正是因为中国市场并不是那么有效,所以指数增强基金相比于被动指数基金会更有优势。

指数基金的编制透明,而增强的概念在于采用量化的模型来做增强,终极的投资目标是高于指数收益。说到指数增强,以我拟管理的正在火热发行的博时中证500指数增强基金(005062)为例,这只基金的增强策略是对所有指数成分股都进行增强,博时借鉴国际定量分析的经验,以对中国市场的长期研究为基础,综合来自公司财务报表、分析师预测和市场行情趋势等方面的信息,构建博时数量化模型。该模型在均衡配置的基础上,从股票风格(价值风格、成长风格等)、公司财报盈利及盈利质量监控、行情趋势等方面,对所有成分股进行分析,并在跟踪误差范围内,对每只股票的权重进行调整,每只股票都会有所差异。

目前,博时量化团队共20余人,在这个队伍中,拥有高考状元、奥数金牌,专业背景涵括理科、工科、经济学、统计学和管理学等各个学科,实际上,笔者在指数投资领域也有多年的研究经验,笔者管理的博时裕富沪深300指数基金自2003年成立以来,通过对沪深300指数的精准跟踪,累计收益330.97%,年化收益10.99%,期间同期沪深300指数涨幅仅217.22%,今年以来博时沪深300A获15.35%的正收益,在全市场437只同类基金中排名前1/5。(数据来源:wind,2017.08.24)

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