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消费白马股业绩稳健增长

2017-08-31 10:36:17   新华网

青岛海尔上半年实现收入775.76亿元,增长59.01%;归属上市公司股东的净利润44.27亿元,增长33.54%。

去年第四季度以来,空调整机和上游配件行业出货量呈现高速反弹态势。联讯证券指出,家电行业处在消费升级超级周期,消费者的消费习惯正由功能性消费转向品质消费,推动整机厂商不断优化产品结构,高端产品占比持续提升,龙头公司受益明显。

机构青睐白酒家电

股价、业绩齐飞相对应的是机构持股高度集中。半年报显示,多只消费股的机构持股比例在50%以上。其中,山西汾酒的机构持股比例高达81.20%,小天鹅A、贵州茅台、泸州老窖、洋河股份、五粮液和老板电器等公司的机构持股均超过70%。

QFII对消费白马股依然看好。从二季末持股情况看,QFII持有市值超过亿元的7家公司中,两家为消费类白马股,分别为贵州茅台和老板电器。目前QFII持有市值最高的是贵州茅台。二季末,易方达资产管理(香港)有限公司、奥本海默基金公司、新加坡政府投资公司持有该股票。不过,相较一季末,新加坡政府投资公司有所减持。

从公募基金的持仓情况看,白酒股成为不少绩优基金的重仓股。其中,贵州茅台、五粮液最受青睐,在前十大重仓股名单中多次出现。富国天源沪港深平衡基金、财通价值动量基金等均持有贵州茅台、五粮液。截至6月底,银华富裕主题混合基金的十大重仓股中7只为白酒股,相较一季度,对其中5只进行了加仓。农银汇理国企改革混合十大重仓股中5只为白酒股,合计占基金净值比重达29.39%。

除了“喝酒”,多只基金同样偏好“吹空调”。格力电器、美的集团、华帝股份、老板电器等被基金重仓持有。

广发证券指出,消费股整体配置比例稳定,但内部结构分化,对白电和白酒加仓,但对医药、纺织服装、农业存在明显减仓。

后续走向现分歧

对于此轮消费白马股的行情走向,业内人士的观点出现分歧。

银河证券指出,白马消费股未至巅峰,A股市场将继续震荡分化,白马消费龙头结构性行情尚未走完。白马股在7、8月份横盘整理,但周期股后期需求面临较大不确定性,成长股业绩差估值高,白马股的比较优势将再度凸显。

光大证券财富管理中心余纯指出,白酒、白电板块的PE、PB的绝对水平均处于较高位置,但PEG指标显示盈利、估值的匹配度依然不错。北上资金对消费白马最为青睐,随着A股国际化程度逐渐提高,优质消费白马股值得继续关注。

也有业内人士指出,格力电器、美的集团等家电类公司近两年来业绩高速增长,主要是因为去年消化库存,而今年开始补库存。但这些效应将会消除,行业大概率回到10%左右的增长率;考虑到估值已快速提升,因此对这类股的收益持谨慎态度。(常佳瑞)

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