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天弘基金遭遇成长天花板:余额宝天量资金或被分流

2017-08-25 14:06:16   中国经济网

在此前媒体采访中,天弘基金副总经理周晓明表示,余额宝的规模确实已经达到一定体量,系统重要性提高了,一旦发生风险有可能会对金融体系产生影响。但从余额宝的发展状况来看,其风险管控体系尤其是流动性风险管理能力是强大而有效的。虽如此,但监管趋严加之持有人结构特性,“余额宝”仍面临三大问题需解。

余额宝问题一:严格按照新规需补近60亿风险准备金

根据3月底公布的《公开募集开放式证券投资基金流动性风险管理规定(征求意见稿)》(下称《意见稿》),同一基金管理人所管理采用摊余成本法进行核算的货币市场基金的月末资产净值合计不得超过该基金管理人风险准备金月末余额的200倍,以天弘基金目前的情况难以达到这一规定。以天弘货币基金目前的体量,风险准备金起码要50-60亿。怎么解决这个问题对天弘来说压力巨大,要么规模去化,要么纳入MPA考核,两者都很难。

天弘余额宝去年单一产品管理费收入超过23亿元,补充60亿元的风险准备金等于把过去几年的利润全部消耗掉;但是,余额宝的总量还在增加,这肯定不是解决问题的长久之计。

余额宝问题二:1.19万亿资金存银行或涉嫌违反新规

传言称有关方面正酝酿货基新规,限制或禁止货币基金对部分商业银行同业存单的投资:对货币基金投资商业银行同业存单新增三条核心规定:将禁止货基投资主体评级低于AA+以下的商业银行发行的存单;AAA级以下商业银行发行的同业存单的投资比例最高不得超过10%;规定同一基金管理人管理的全部货基投资同一商业银行的存款及其发行的同业存单与债券,合计不得超过该行净资产的10%。

按照新规第三条的10%规定,一家公募旗下的全部货基投资商业银行的银行存款及其发行的同业存单与债券,不得超过1万亿元。而根据wind数据显示,截至2017年二季末,余额宝7.94%的资产投向了债券,规模约为1138.3亿元;余额82.95%的基金资产投向了银行存款和结算备付金,规模约1.19万亿元(详见下图),天弘余额宝显然已经超过了新规上限(1万亿元)。

天弘余额宝2017年二季度资产配置情况 数据来源:Wind

具体新规究竟如何尚不明确,其中业内对“新规将提升巨型货基配置压力”这一说法几乎没有分歧。天风证券分析指出,由于净资产比例的限制,当基金公司旗下的货币基金总规模达到4000-5000亿时产生的配置压力会显著增加。但随着规模扩大执行难度也在加大,现在监管对这块的要求越来越高,天弘只能去找更多符合条件的公司进行合作。

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