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量能不足 股指将冲高回落
2017-08-21 10:47:58 中国经济网
标普500指数自去年11月8日特朗普当选总统以来上涨了13.4%,但过去两周累计下跌2.1%。现在投资者对那些特朗普政府上台之初的减税和增加基建支出的选举承诺疑虑不断加重,加之美联储通过减少资产负债表实现对基础货币的直接回收,相对于提高利率,是极为严厉的紧缩政策。这很可能就是终结美股牛市的信号,当然,对国内股市也会具有相当不利的影响。
贸易保护主义抬头
8月以来的各项经济数据可以说是不容乐观的。首先来看制造业数据,7月31日,国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示,7月官方制造业PMI和7月非制造业PMI分别为51.4和54.5,均较上个月小幅回落,不及预期。笔者认为,当下制造业面临很大的压力,一方面制造业主要的生产要素都在涨价,另一方面商业银行不愿意投资实体经济,原因在于信贷投资的收益率非常有限(目前五年以上贷款利率为4.9%)。其次看出口数据,海关总署8月8日公布的数据显示,以美元计价7月出口同比增长7.2%,比上个月下降4.1个百分点;1—7月以美元计价出口同比增长8.3%,增速比1—6月下降0.2个百分点。笔者认为,出口形势正面临困难局面,因为当前全球经济复苏基础还不稳固,特别是贸易保护主义抬头。当地时间8月18日下午,美国贸易代表莱特希泽发表声明称,将根据美国《1974年贸易法》第301条,在涉及技术转让、知识产权和创新领域对中国正式启动贸易调查。最后,国内投资数据也差强人意。国家统计局8月14日公布的数据显示,7月部分经济指标有所回落。1—7月,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长8.3%,增速比1—6月回落0.3个百分点。1—7月,民间固定资产投资204640亿元,同比名义增长6.9%,增速比1—6月回落0.3个百分点。民间固定资产投资占全国固定资产投资(不含农户)的比重为60.7%,与1—6月持平。
图为今年以来固定资产投资增速
笔者分析,货币供应量增速下降,使PPP项目落地存在难度,导致基建资金无法到位。此外,有些社会资本并不考虑自己的实力而大胆拿项目,但很多时候做不下来,这也是目前PPP项目的落地率不高的原因。根据财政部PPP中心的最新统计,截至2017年6月末,在全国入库项目中,已签约落地的项目有2021个,投资额达到3.3万亿元,整体项目落地率为34.2%。总体而言,中国政府在推动中国经济向服务和消费转型、实现经济再平衡方面持续取得进展,今年上半年消费对中国经济增长的贡献率达63.4%,但中国经济增速与前几年相比的确有所放缓。中国经济在结构调整时期持续存在下行压力,这不利于股市的进一步上涨。
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