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人民币王者归来 外汇占款即将转正

2017-08-18 14:14:22   中国经济网

总的来说,业内人士认为,人民币汇率稳步升值有利于刺激结售,而在宏微观审慎监管持续强化背景下,购汇意愿稳中有降,从而有助于促进资本流动趋向均衡,外汇占款转正,但外汇占款的恢复量以及恢复持续性仍取决于未来美元走势。

双向波动是主基调

进一步看,分析人士认为,随着人民币“补涨”需求得到释放,美联储仍处于加息周期及中国经济韧性较强的背景下,预计人民币汇率后续仍将呈现双向波动格局。

申万宏源证券宏观研究团队认为,随着美元利空逐步释放,且美国下半年经济有望保持相对强劲;出于背水一战的考虑,在中期选举前特朗普税改大概率也将取得进展,预计后续美元仍有一定升值空间。而国内经济基本平稳叠加逆周期因子引入,也对人民币汇率有所支撑。随着人民币单边贬值预期逐步扭转,预计后续人民币将呈双向波动。

中信建投证券黄文涛表示,近期人民币汇率变化标志着长期以来持续笼罩市场的贬值预期在“811”汇改两周年之际终于松动,这也为监管机构未来适时适度放开实需原则创造了有利条件。虽然年内美元指数反弹可能将持续,这仍有可能带来预期的反复,但总体来看,年内人民币兑美元将有望真正实现双边波动。

招商证券谢亚轩进一步指出,逆周期因子的引入可以分化市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期,并非单方向助推人民币升值,下半年人民币兑美元汇率仍是“双向波动”。美元指数不会持续回落,中期的美元走强周期可能尚未结束。维持下半年外汇市场供求弱平衡、央行外汇占款低速增长的判断。

综合机构观点来看,在下半年海外货币政策分化的背景下,美元指数继续上行乏力;而中国经济韧性仍然较强,人民币汇率预期也明显改善,且“逆周期因子”的汇率双向波动预期管理作用运行良好,预计未来人民币汇率双向波动仍是运行的主基调。

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