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信号!周期股与商品走势背离

2017-08-11 10:08:30   新华网

广发证券选取了A股历史上非牛市时期的三段典型周期股行情,分析了相关情况:

第一阶段是2008年11月到2009年8月,该轮行情的起因是4万亿强刺激政策出台后拉动固定资产投资,行情持续时间近3个季度,行情终结的原因在于政策转向,宏观政策导向由刺激投资转向刺激消费,风格由周期逐渐转向消费。

第二阶段是2010年7月到2010年11月,当时行情除了有需求端预期修复的影响之外,更关键的驱动因素来自于“拉闸限电”带来的供给收紧和QE2预期下的全球流动性宽松,而行情的终结来自于国内通胀抬升,央行加息逆转流动性预期。广发证券指出,目前的周期股行情跟第二阶段的行情有相似之处。

第三阶段是2012年1月到2012年3月,当时的周期股行情是由政策刺激带来需求复苏预期支撑的一波行情,2012年一季度经济数据验证复苏证伪,随后行情走向终结,风格逐渐由周期转向价值成长。

广发证券指出,当前政策大幅转向或流动性收紧存在一定难度,但是预期会发生“二阶”变化,将导致后续周期股的反弹趋于分化。广发证券认为,本轮周期股反弹对应的是长端利率下行的有利环境,金融工作会议之后的金融去杠杆持续推进会对流动性造成边际冲击,尽管其影响或相对温和,但仍可能影响部分周期股的反弹。

国开证券近日也对周期股发表看法,其研报指出,考虑到环保趋严接棒供给侧改革继续强化供给端紧缩,下半年商品价格还将保持较为活跃的走势。但PPI维持高位,CPI低位平衡,表明需求端增长乏力导致商品价格向下游传导不力。商品价格的持续上涨会进一步抑制下游产品生产,再加上部分企业增产,商品价格将在冲高后逐步回落。目前周期股的走势已充分反映当前的商品价格能够长期持续的预期,如果商品价格出现阶段回落则周期股将难以再创新高。(记者 胡华雄)

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