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联想手机业务深陷泥潭 “扭亏为盈”或成笑话

2017-08-07 14:03:57   中国经济网

8月4日,截至记者发稿,联想集团的股价只有4.8港元左右,相比2015年4月最高峰时的14.3港元,可谓惨不忍睹。

联想2016财年财报显示了这种困境:营业收入430.35亿美元,其中个人电脑和智能设备业务、移动业务、数据中心业务和其他业务的收入分别为300.76亿美元(70%)、77.07亿美元(18%)、40.68亿美元(9%)和11.83亿美元(3%)。

对比五年前,2011财年的营业收入为295.74亿美元,其中个人电脑业务、移动业务和其他业务的收入分别为265.8亿美元(90%)、14.84亿美元(5%)和15.1亿美元(5%)。

不难发现,虽然联想现有的三块主营业务的收入规模有较明显增加,但个人电脑业务的收入占比下降显著,与之相反的是移动业务和数据业务的占比显著增加。这一业务占比的变化体现了联想的转型过程,但却恰恰也说明了联想转型的困境。

现在来分析一下联想上述三块业务的具体表现。

从2014财年到2016财年,联想集团个人电脑业务的税前利率(税前利率为税前利润对营业收入的比率,税前利润的概念和利润总额一致,等于净利润加上所得税。在一定程度上,税前利率能够说明该业务的盈利能力)虽然在最后一财年有小幅的回升,但其收入不断下降却是一个不争的事实。市场调研机构IDC和Gartner2017年的PC报告显示,惠普第一、二季度的计算机出货量都超过了联想,重新夺回了全球最大PC生产商的称号,这也是联想自2013年后第一次跌至第二位。联想的PC业务前景令人担忧。

与此同时,联想集团移动业务的收入总体呈下降趋势,同时税前利率不断下降,2016财年已下降至-7.3%。

联想集团的数据中心业务的收入总体呈上升趋势,但是税前利率不断下降,2016财年已下降至-8.36%。

就上述情况来看,目前联想无论是后继乏力的PC业务,还是已经逐渐步入成熟期的移动业务,或是正处于增长期的数据中心业务,都难令人乐观。

只用3年跌落首位

从中国最大的PC生产商到全球最大的生产商,联想走了17年,而丢掉这顶全球桂冠,联想只花了3年。

对于联想的PC市场份额被惠普反超,国泰君安证券的分析师黎柏坚认为,美国经济复苏使得商用PC的需求量增加,并且美国新政府对美国PC制造商的分销和贸易有优惠的条件,所以惠普电脑的出货量超过了联想,占据PC市场的领先地位。另外,个人电脑的关键组件如NAND和DRAM供应不足,影响了联想电脑的库存、出货和费用。

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