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何帆:央行再提打破刚兑,首先需清理多层嵌套问题

2017-07-14 18:26:20   

资产端和负债端的双重刚性兑付问题困扰着中国金融市场的定价功能。随着中国金融市场化改革的推进,打破隐形刚性兑付和刚性兑付预期势在必行。打破刚性兑付意味着风险的充分释放,金融部门的资产负债表要面临重大调整。正常情况下,这往往只会涉及到债权债务双方,只需要达成新的债务重组协议,并对风险进行重新定价即可。但是,当打破刚性兑付遇上多层嵌套,债权债务双方中间相差了多个金融机构,这时候资产负债的调整就会变得非常复杂。

当前的资管行业中,各金融机构间的通道业务类型特别常见。有一个大致的数据可以佐证。根据《报告》提供的数据,截至2016年末,银行表内、表外理财产品资金余额分别为5.9万亿元、23.1万亿元;信托公司受托管理的资金信托余额为17.5万亿元;公募基金、私募基金、证券公司资产管理计划、基金及其子公司资产管理计划、保险资产管理计划的规模分别为9.2万亿元、10.2万亿元、17.6万亿元、16.9万亿元、1.7万亿元。剔除交叉持有的因素后,各行业金融机构资产管理业务总规模约60多万亿元。这里的交叉持有因素,主要就是指多层嵌套。用资产管理总规模减去60万亿,可知在金融体系内部因通道业务而出现的资产管理业务规模达40万亿左右。

从合规的角度,单独考察某个资管计划的具体环节都可能符合资管要求。但是,经过层层嵌套加杠杆之后,金融机构之间的关联性越来越强,金融部门内部的风险积聚得越来越高。在打破刚兑的过程中,我们要警惕可能诱发的风险及传导路径,如通道业务过多过于复杂,导致无法穿透监管,打破一个刚兑会牵连一批机构。

因此,打破刚性兑付首先要处理多层嵌套问题。首先,监管部门应加快穿透式监管的推进,尽快厘清复杂的嵌套结构。与此同时,监管部门应设定明确的处置标准,对于超过标准的资管业务,要在自主协商的基础上限时整改,部分情况下可引入监管介入。其次,化解存量风险的基础上,严控增量资管业务的质量。一方面要重视资管产品的结构,避免出现新的复杂嵌套产品,加剧金融空转的情况;另一方面要打破资产和负债两端的刚性兑付问题,合理为资管产品确定标准。第三,打破刚性兑付的过程中,央行需提供充足的非廉价流动性,以避免局部风险乃至系统性风险的出现。几乎所有的金融危机都始于流动性风险。在推进金融部门去杠杆的过程中,资管业务融资会面临较大困难,融资成本也会提升。央行需及时向市场注入非廉价流动性,确保在保持金融市场稳定的同时彻底打破刚性兑付。(中新经纬APP)

【专家简介】何帆,北京大学汇丰商学院经济学教授、海上丝路研究院执行院长。曾任中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长,兼任中国人民银行汇率专家组顾问、财政部国际司顾问、商务部顾问、外交部国际经济司顾问。2005 年被评为世界经济论坛(达沃斯)青年全球领袖、亚洲社会青年领袖。

关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索“中新经纬”或“jwview”),看更多精彩财经资讯。

(中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。本文不代表中新经纬观点。)

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