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新金融如何玩出freestyle?

2017-07-07 18:30:02   

“系统风险是整个金融风险的市场积累。”左小蕾分析称,过去所说的管理风险是针对非系统性风险,但管理风险的同时也在向市场释放系统风险。把所有的非系统性风险管住了,并不一定就守住了风险底线。

左小蕾指出,金融行业的经营原则是不能以利润最大化为目标,而是要在风险约束下去竞争风险负债水平下的利润最大化。此外,要充分认识到虚拟金融行为比传统金融行为存在更大的风险,虚拟金融最大的风险是跟实体经济没有太大的关联度。

中国社会科学院学部委员、经济研究所所长高培勇看来,影响金融安全的一个重要因素是财政赤字,而目前对于财政赤字的认识还缺乏足够的视角。

今年国家财政赤字安排约为23800亿,增量约为2000亿。有部分言论认为与中央提出的“更加积极有效”不相符,有言论还主张“财政赤字应突破3%的界限,甚至突破8%也是可以的”。

对此,高培勇表示,上述言论仍然是处在“旧常态”的思维。自2012年以来,关于经济形势判断的理念和政策框架产生了很大变化,在新常态的背景下看待财政赤字,会有不一样的结果。

他分析称,当前经济问题的根源在于重大结构性失衡导致的经济循环不畅,而不是过去谈论的周期性因素。理解财政赤字时,不能再从“扩大总需求”着眼。供给侧改革强调的是“适度扩大社会总需求”,“适度”表明在扩大社会总需求上,赤字是辅助性行动,而不是主力队员的角色。

中新社发 美堂漫画 作

高培勇表示,今年的财政赤字要守住3%的底线,他对今年的积极性财政政策安排持理解和欢迎态度。

创新有风险,解铃还须系铃人

实现金融“稳”的同时,还要促进金融“活”。而金融“活”,离不开技术与创新。

谈及金融创新,中国人民大学法学院副院长、金融科技与互联网安全研究中心主任杨东表示,科技驱动的金融创新,为提升传统金融的服务能力、风险管控方面提供了非常好的路径和手段。同时它也带来了新的风险,但金融创新总体上是安全的,风险也是可控的。

首创证券研发部总经理王剑辉指出,金融创新对制度框架产生了挑战,比如数字货币,尽管这种挑战很微弱,但它带来的长远影响值得关注。

其次,金融创新也对风险管控提出新的挑战,互联网出现以后,黑客通过网络对银行系统形成威胁。另外,金融行业的竞争格局也会发生一种渐进的变化,科技手段的每一次提升都会使金融体系的集中度显著提升。

金融创新中出现的问题如何解决?中国互联网金融创新研究院院长黄震表示,创新必然带来风险,解铃还须系铃人。面对创新中出现的问题,解决的必要途径就是继续创新,在创新中完善安全,减少隐患。

新金融形成迅猛发展的势头,有人不禁担心,新金融是否会颠覆传统金融?对此,宜信公司高级副总裁、首席战略官陈欢表示,新金融和传统金融之间是一个补充的概念,不是所谓的取代或颠覆。对新金融而言,金融风险具备的流动性风险等风险依然存在。

中国青年政治学院金融研究所所长李永森肯定了陈欢的看法。李永森指出,从总体上看,传统金融与新金融,更多的是重构、合作、共赢,一加一大于二的过程,“较少会出现所谓颠覆性的、淘汰出局的情况。”

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