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胡敏:中国经济还将延续L形走势 需关注这五大问题

2017-06-16 17:23:55   

二是实体经济振兴依旧乏力,脱实向虚还未得到完全扭转。

制造业发展状况可以作为观察实体经济振兴发展的“风向标”。今年以来,在三大结构性矛盾还没有根本缓解的情况下,制造业转型升级依旧步履艰难。

首先,反映景气度的制造业和非制造业PMI指数等多项指标出现下行态势。国家统计局数据显示,2017年5月,制造业PMI为 51.2,与4月持平。财新中国制造业采购经理人指数5月录得49.6,较4月回落0.7个百分点,为连续三个月下降,更是11个月以来首次跌入50以下的收缩区间。

其次,我国制造业产品和组织结构还处在艰苦的转型调整之中。目前我国制造业中,高品质、个性化、高复杂性、高附加值的产品供给能力还不能很好适应消费结构的升级变化,传统制造业中的关键装备、核心零部件和基础软件仍严重依赖进口和外资企业,制造业中新兴技术和产业领域对全球竞争的制高点掌控不足。从我们调研中发现,一些地方制造业企业虽然不少冠之以高新技术名称,但自主创新和研发力量不足,产品还是处于国际产业链分工地位的低端,主要是依托国外品牌拓展市场,由此只能分食微薄的加工组装利润,企业亟待从低附加值环节向高附加值环节转型升级。

再次,制造业投资回报率低、“脱实向虚”未有根本扭转,也制约着制造业部门整体加快向中高端迈进步伐。尽管一系列扶持制造业发展的政策构成“利好”,但技术革新促进制造业企业全要素生产率提升还要一个相当过程。一方面,今年上半年金融去杠杆和金融监管收紧对实体经济的影响逐渐显现,制造业企业融资能力和成本均在上升;另一方面,与金融业、房地产业的投资高回报相比,制造企业争取来的新增信贷资金还是愿意以各种方式“脱实入虚”,追求在虚拟经济自我循环中获得“快钱”回报。

三是新旧动能转换步伐不快,政策引导有待跟进。

目前我国新经济发展势头良好,新产业新业态方兴未艾、新产品新动能持续壮大,新消费新市场蓬勃发展,有力地推动了经济增长新旧动能的转换。

新经济发展虽然潜力巨大、空间广阔,也代表着未来产业经济发展的方向,但作为新生事物,未知远大于已知。一是对新经济发展的认识还不够充分,各地培育壮大新兴产业和改造提升传统产业的措施不够有力。从总量上看,新经济对经济增长的贡献还没有成为主导力量;从结构上看,各地虽都将发展新技术新产业新业态写入了发展规划,但一些地方还不能立足自身产业发展优势和本地实情找准发展方向,同质化规划严重,差异化发展不足;对企业主体而言,限于政策、技术、资金、人才限制和思维的路径依赖,找不准发展新经济的发力点,新旧动能转换呈现胶着状态。二是政府扶持、促进和监管新经济发展的方式有待改进和跟进。一个时期以来,跨境电商、网络购物、互联网支付、共享交通工具等新业态发展如火如荼,但在实践过程中存在一些管理问题。有关部门、有些地区按照老办法、旧思维出台了一些监管政策和条例,有的过于机械,有的削足适履,影响了新经济发展的积极性。因此,亟待政府部门开阔思路、集思广益。三是服务新旧动能接续转换的政策措施有待进一步落实和到位。目前国家已经出台一系列促进新经济发展的政策措施,但在简政、降税、减负方面还有较大的努力空间。各地需进一步深化“放管服”改革,为新动能集聚发展创造良好的政策环境、打造坚实的发展载体,充分激发市场活力和全社会创造力。

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