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中国可燃冰资源可用百年以上 商业开发还需15到20年

2017-06-05 17:53:33   经济参考报

而在可燃冰带来的世界能源变革中,如果中国能够继续保持“领跑”的态势,那我国将拥有“先人一步”的优势,能在未来能源格局中抢占住战略制高点。

神狐海域可燃冰试采成功,还将为我国海洋经济发展提供新的增长极,有助于我国海洋强国战略的实施。叶建良认为,可燃冰不仅保障国家能源安全,而且上千亿吨石油级别的可燃冰商业性开发,将产生巨量的经济效益,为我国海洋经济发展提供强大的原动力。

中国科学家认为,全球能源中的“中国方案”将有助于“一带一路”倡议的发展。“低渗粉砂质储层水合物矿藏在海上丝绸之路沿线国家广泛分布,很多国家对可燃冰有强烈需求。我们现在掌握了这一技术,将来可以进行技术输出,有利于解决‘一带一路’沿线的资源、能源问题,推动‘一带一路’沿线的经济发展和融合。”邱海峻说。

 何时能用上可燃冰

20世纪80年代初起,世界各主要资源国都将可燃冰开发列入国家发展战略,在近些年全球新一轮的可燃冰勘查开采热潮中,美、日、印、德等国纷纷将可燃冰资源勘查和开发利用纳入其国家能源中长期发展规划,并编制了详细的发展路线图。

目前,全球可燃冰研发活跃的国家主要有中国、美国、日本、韩国、加拿大和印度等国。越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚等国也制定了试采计划。日本于2013年和今年在同一海域进行了两次试采,均因出砂问题失败。

国际欧亚科学院院士、青岛国家海洋科学研究中心主任李乃胜在接受记者采访时表示,以中国这次重大突破为标志,可燃冰开采已经达到了“技术上可行”阶段,但在实现“经济上可行”,即民用化、商业化的征程中还有一些障碍需要克服。主要是如何进一步降低开采和运输成本、降低对矿藏周边环境影响等。

李乃胜认为,在未来可燃冰开发过程中,要进一步确立可燃冰资源在我国能源战略中的地位,优先编制可燃冰开发中长期规划;汲取发达国家先进经验,瞄准世界一流水平,建立健全开采的技术标准和技术体系,增强核心技术自主研发能力。

同时,要对可燃冰开采可能诱发的气候、地质及生物影响进行深入研究,提出应对方案;深化基础研究,摸清成矿原理,建立符合我国国土实际的理论模型,提升我国相关研究的国际地位。

未来可燃冰开发道路依旧漫长,根据卢海龙等人的判断,我国可燃冰要达到商业性开发的水平,还需要15年到20年的时间,也就是在2030年以后才行。当前的重点在于,拥有保有足够的技术能力和基础数据研究,而这两者目前都需进一步加强。记者 吴涛 王攀 张旭东

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