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谭雅玲:人民币暴涨后或迎来快速回调

2017-06-02 11:32:48   

此外,谭雅玲还表示,香港市场的独特性也是人民币升值过程中起到推波助澜作用的重要因素。“香港既是在岸市场,也是离岸市场。从离岸市场的角度它是一个自由港,从在岸市场的角度,它是跟中国内地的人民币紧密联系在一起的,实际上投机客在香港市场还是非常多的。”

最后,谭雅玲认为商业银行的运作也是人民币升值的推手之一。“前一段美元升值的时候,商业银行购买美元的情绪比较高,而随着美元不断贬值,5月末商业银行抛美元的情绪和操作也助推了人民币升值。”

人民币或将迎来一轮快速回调

谭雅玲指出,尽管国内外众多因素交织促成了人民币上涨,但是从技术和投机策略的角度去看,人民币快速升值预示着贬值也会很快。“本次人民币升值的阶段性和短期性是比较突出的,人民币以贬值为主的态势不会有根本性改变。”

市场有一些声音认为,此番人民币升值并不是昙花一现,而是趋势上的根本逆转。对此谭雅玲不太赞同。她认为,从人民币基本面来看,并不适合现在的快速升值。尤其是人民币快速升值可能对中国外贸恢复形成较大打击。她建议考虑实体经济和企业的真实感受,不要过度推动人民币升值。

“人民币这次上涨后,一定会迎来一轮回调,而且下跌的速度会比前期更快。今年以来双边走势和维稳的态势比较明显,经过了这一轮的快速上涨,人民币未来下跌的可能性会加大。”谭雅玲分析称。

谭雅玲认为,人民币汇率稳定在哪里合适要看中国经济的需要。对外汇市场来说,一个重要的因素是外贸指标。当美元兑人民币在8以上时,外贸蓬勃发展,破8尤其是破7之后,贸易衰弱。可见,美元兑人民币保持在7以上,比较适合中国外贸发展的需要。

对于普通老百姓而言,如果有出国需求,现在是否是一个换汇的好时机呢?谭雅玲的回答是肯定的。“这个换汇时机是比较好的,不过这个时机也会很短暂。”不过她也强调,老百姓换汇应该考虑实际需求,不是看价格去做选择,而是要看自己需要去做选择。(中新经纬APP)

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