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楼市红五月成交遇冷:购房者观望情绪浓 房价僵持不下

2017-06-01 12:10:42   经济参考报

资料图 中新社记者 韦亮 摄

蔓延 楼市限售时代开启

杨科伟认为,在持续低供应下,楼市多方仍将处于拉锯状态,“有价无市”格局愈加明显。因此,受制于限购、限贷政策持续发力,叠加严控供应,多数城市成交持续低迷,但随着楼市持续的政策收紧,调控的延长,在房企回收资金的压力下,供应量企稳回升,成交量有望逐步回归至正常水平。而对于部分城市,房价仍面临着较大的上涨压力,后期不排除跟进落地限购、限贷新政的可能性。

张大伟表示,从目前来看,限售时代已经开启,楼市的去杠杆政策,使得购房者必须要以自用为目的配置资金。否则按照3-5年的交易周期看,已经不太可能吸引高杠杆的高成本资金进入。

中原地产研究中心统计显示:成都、厦门、福州、青岛、杭州、广州、珠海、惠州、扬州、常州、长乐、闽侯、徐水、启东、白沟、海南、东莞、西安、济南、郑州、高碑店、芜湖、开封、南京、无锡、长沙、嘉兴、承德、保定、北京(保定、北京等均为有部分限制)、珠海等超过30多个城市,历史上首次启动了买房后一定年限限制出让的楼市调控政策。

“预计未来限售政策将快速向三四线蔓延,后续可能会有超过50个城市执行限售。”张大伟说。

此外,值得注意的是,全国人大财经委副主任黄奇帆日前的演讲也透露出未来房地产长效机制的雏形。他指出,未来中国房地产长效机制将从土地、金融、税收、租赁、地票等方面入手。

对于未来房价,张大伟说,从过去调控看,一般都需要6个月以上,价格才会出现明显的下行。目前来看,严厉调控开启仅2个月时间,买卖双方还在博弈过程中,成交下滑还需一定时间体现在房价端。以此来看,四季度房价或现松动。记者 梁倩

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