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中国航空产业进入升级期 万亿市场规模可期

2017-05-05 11:44:44   经济参考报

伴随重点产品的亮相,以及相关产业政策的出台,多领域、多层次的巨大需求,也使航空产业逐渐成长为有望突破万亿规模的重要产业。

民航数据显示,截至2015年年底,我国年人均乘机次数达到0.32次,10年增长了167%。据波音民机集团中国市场执行总监霍达仁预测,未来20年中国的运输航空市场还需要7000多架飞机,将成为全球第一个超过万亿美元的市场。招商证券等券商研报则预计,到2030年,全球对C919所属的160座级单通道喷气客机的需求量约为14500架,而我国预计需求量约为2650架。按照中国商飞的预测,C919预计至少可销售2000架以上,按照每架5000万美元测算,C919的市场空间超过1000亿美元(约合6900亿元)。

据介绍,目前C919已获得全球23家用户的570架订单。此外,航空发动机领域的市场前景同样不容小觑。国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会公布的权威报告预测,未来十年,全球市场对航空发动机产品需求旺盛,其中涡扇、涡喷发动机的累计全球需求总量将超7.36万台,总价值超4000亿美元;涡轴发动机累计需求量超3.4万台,总价值超190亿美元;涡桨发动机累计需求量超1.6万台,总价值超150亿美元;活塞发动机需求量超3.3万台,总价值超30亿美元。同期,我国国内干线客机对大型发动机累计需求将超6000台,总价值超500亿美元。而随着低空空域的开放,对通用飞机的航空发动机需求也将随之放量。

据国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会介绍,启动航空发动机专项行动是推进我国航空发动机产业快速发展的重要推手,配合中国制造2025战略,“十三五”末我国航空发动机产业规模将突破700亿元,部分产品将打入国际市场;到2025年,产业规模突破1000亿元,产业有望进入世界第一梯队。

多家券商研报还指出,航空发动机市场需求巨大,但目前世界上只有通用(GE)、普惠(PW)和罗罗(RR)三家公司有能力独立研制航空发动机。不过随着航空发动机专项启动,以及中国航发正式组建,我国航空发动机产业将加速发展,并有望在未来争取到一定的国际市场份额。

趋势 航空产业集群加速成型

业内认为,随着C919生产和交付,以及重点型号航空发动机的立项,将促使我国航空产业集群的加速成型。C919总设计师吴光辉向《经济参考报》记者表示,C919一旦正式交付,不但能够为我国航空产业带来巨大收益,还会促进我国航空产业的整体发展。目前,C919的生产、配套和组装涉及上海、西安、沈阳等多个核心城市和周边地区的数百家企业,上下游产业链囊括了航空制造、新材料、金属加工、航电设备、精密仪器等多个产业,航空产业集群式发展的趋势已非常明显。

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