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“确定”的雄安,需要培养点儿“不确定”

2017-04-27 11:05:49   

  如何解决不确定性?

奈特还研究了保险。保险公司将偶然事件集中到一起,通过规模来管理不确定性,就可以获得利润。在这个意义上,企业扩大规模,也可以处置不确定性问题。

当然,规模也未必能够解决不确定问题,专业化决策也是一个选择,可以控制不确定性。

所以,专业化,也能够通过提升熟练技能,来应对不确定性,从而获得利润。

现在大家都喜欢和合伙制企业做生意,不喜欢独资企业,因为后者会有一个人说了算,容易变化,而三个人的合伙企业,则内部会吵架,就有一定的确定性,其不确定性是可管理的。

目前,现在大家都喜欢产业基金,喜欢大资金投入,而不喜欢单独的小资金投入,这说明规模大能够管控不确定性,而小规模很难管控不确定性。这说明,奈特的经济学,虽然处理不确定性,但对不确定的处理,有很多方法。这些方法,决定了企业是走规模,还是走专业化。不过,无论是走规模,还是走专业化,都是为了更好地处理不确定。

  奈特经济学背后的事

奈特的经济学研究的是不确定,但他的经历却非常确定,基本上是学者的生涯,但期间也有两个坎坷,这两个不确定的坎坷,可以说给他的经济学生涯有了点不确定性,甚至让他成为多个方面的著名学者和多学科的教授。

1885年11月7日,奈特出生在美国伊利诺伊州的一个农场,农业需要劳动力,他爸把这个儿子当劳动力使,看起来他要成为终身农民,他高中就因此被耽误了。这是他第一个坎坷。

不过他还是设法去念了个小小的大学,1911年在田纳西州的米利根学院获学士学位,1913年在田纳西大学获硕士学位,毕业后奈特进入康奈尔大学学习哲学,一年后开始学习经济学。

1916年,奈特从康奈尔大学获得博士学位,当时已经31岁了。他的博士论文5年后以《风险、不确定性和利润》为名出书,该书奠定了奈特经济学的不确定基本理论。

毕业后,奈特在康奈尔大学任教一年,然后在芝加哥大学任教两年,接着因为没有得到终身教职而移居艾奥瓦,并在艾奥瓦大学晋升为教授。这是他的第二个坎坷。

不过,离开芝加哥大学之后八年他就成了全国著名的经济学家,哲学家。1927年,著名经济学家奈特选择回到芝加哥大学,在这里,他由于多个学科的杰出贡献,而被多个学科聘为教授,而不仅仅是经济学家。他在芝加哥大学一直工作到退休。

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