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“确定”的雄安,需要培养点儿“不确定”

2017-04-27 11:05:49   

不确定的利润,实际上来自运气。这相当于战场上的子弹,上了战场没有挨子弹的都是利润。子弹真是存在,但却不可计算。大量的不确定性,导致了大量的利润机会。

所以,扩展的、开放的社会秩序,是充满机会的秩序,也是充满利润的秩序。

然而,一旦用国家秩序的暴力、政府秩序的强制、原始社会秩序的封闭来控制不确定性,剩下的就会是客观的财富,而不确定产生的利润,就会很快消失。社会也会因此而变得贫困。

因此,国家秩序要减少暴力的不确定性,政府秩序要减少不当损害的不确定性,原始社会秩序要减少情感损害的不确定性,扩展的市场秩序,增加自由的不确定性。

没有暴力,没有损害,没有爱恨情仇的伤害,却有扩展市场的不确定性,这个社会就会充满机会,充满利润。

资料图:雄安街头。 中新社记者 翟羽佳 摄

  利润来源于不确定性

提到不确定性,有一个人却是确定要提的。

弗兰克·奈特(Frank Hyneman Knight,1885-1972),是美国著名的经济学家,芝加哥经济学派创始人。弗里德曼、斯蒂格勒、布坎南等诺贝尔经济学奖获得者,都是他的学生。他被认为是20世纪最有影响力的经济学家之一,因为他研究了不确定性。

奈特经济学的核心思想是利润来源于不确定性,他认为,完备竞争、完备信息、充分理性、充分的市场,不产生利润。但不完备竞争、对不确定无法认知、无法达到充分理性、需要组织企业来对付不确定性,于是就产生了利润。

奈特认为:“自从我关注经济学以来,令我特别感兴趣的是经济学理论的含义、必要的假设条件,以及理论条件与现实条件之间的不一致性。”这一点有点像他的同事科斯教授。所以,他的第一本著作《风险、不确定性和利润》从理论条件下竞争与实际条件下竞争的不一致性出发,从对完全竞争与不完全竞争的分析入手,引入不确定性概念,区分风险与不确定性,揭示了理论上的完全竞争与实际竞争之间的区别,从而揭示了利润的来源,并在此基础上研究和界定了企业和企业家的性质,从而有别于科斯,从企业家的角度,界定了企业。

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