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不过,周期性领域的改善未来可能存在反复。短周期看,周期的景气高点正在确认过程,一季度很可能成为周期性行业景气高点。去年以来持续推进的供给侧结构性改革使行业产能明显收缩,价格上涨明显,政策层面有所警惕,发改委去年年底便提出要密切关注各类周期品的价格,防止出现大起大落。因此,部分行业,如煤价已不具备大幅上涨的条件,供大于求的矛盾也并未发生根本性改变。另外,此前是货币刺激的需求,目前货币开始收紧,利率自去年开始呈现缓慢抬升的状态,流动性中偏紧的趋势不改,央行缩表正在进行,因此,短周期高点确认的可能性较大。
中期来看,周期性领域景气状况再次回到2016年初的可能性不大,最差的状况已经过去,原因在于,从国际情况来看,全球经济的确有所好转;国内方面,随着供给侧结构性改革的不断深入,行业洗牌之后产能集中度必然提升,优秀公司正在逐渐度过困境,再次回到去年年初情况的可能性不大。(中新经纬APP)
【专家简介】郭艳红,方正证券策略首席研究员,方正证券研究所董事。
(欢迎转载,注明来源“中新经纬”,即视为已获转载授权。本文不代表中新经纬观点。)
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