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国际上“中国威胁论”突然变少 背后原因在哪?

2017-09-21 10:42:21   国际在线

就秩序和暴力的关系而言,阎学通指出,秩序不等于没有暴力,竞争也不意味着没有秩序,以暴力方式强行不执行规范的行为才属于破坏秩序。他举例说,网络黑客直接进入本来需要密码才能登陆的邮箱,这就属于暴力行为,如果不是暴力行为,而是通过商量把事情解决了,这不意味着没有秩序。

阎学通指出,实力决定了权力再分配,以今天国际格局为例,从美国一家说了算到中美两国分权,美国的衰落意味着美国的权力在减少。比如说,1991年美国老布什发动战争可以号召37国参战,等到克林顿打科索沃战争也有二三十个国际响应,但等到小布什打仗只有十几个国家响应,假设现在让特朗普发动战争,他认为可能连5个国家都凑不够,这就说明了美国的国际领导力、国际动员能力在下降。

美国的GDP占世界总量的比例在减少,也从世界上第一大贸易大国下降为第二贸易大国,美国原来是150国家的最大贸易伙伴,现在变成只有二十几个国家的最大贸易伙伴,而中国从原来二十几个国家的最大贸易伙伴,现在变成150多个国家的最大贸易伙伴。实力格局的变化带来了新崛起国家要求分权的诉求,例如新崛起国家若在由守成国主导的组织中得不到更多份额,往往会新成立组织,用以稀释守成国的权力。所以,建立国际新秩序的本质是权力争夺和再分配。

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