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揭秘恒力股份重组标的巨亏真因

2017-09-12 17:00:31   中国经济网

再次,亏在固定资产规模上。恒力投资三套年产能220万吨PTA装置,拥有固定资产规模153.78亿,平均每吨PTA产能固定资产投资额为2330万元,远高于同行企业。高企的固定资产投入带来高企的固定资产折旧。据“答复”披露,2016年恒力投资与PTA产销相关的固定资产折旧与摊销费用为7.47亿,分摊到每吨PTA合111元。

2016年恒力投资运输、利息和折旧三块成本是如此之大(59.5+181+111=351.4)竟超出于2017年3、4、5三个月的两P价差或称PTA加工费(两P价差=PTA产品价-PX原料价)均值348元/吨,换言之,仅支付这三项成本,恒力投资就亏损了。相对而言,PTA生产的原料成本和加工成本同行企业之间相差不太大,因为无论谁生产PTA都离不开PX,1吨PTA用0.656吨PX,少一点不行,多一点不必;无论谁生产PTA都是自动化装置,都需要水电和人力。

然而,要想控制这三项成本亦非易事,因为恒力投资不可能轻易地从东北搬到华东,多年积累下来的固定资产不可能说减就减了,数以百亿计的银行贷款说还就还了。只要这三大成本得不到有效改善,恒力投资2017年盈利前景就难有大的保证,就改变不了“同行大盈我小盈、同行不盈我亏损、同行亏损我大亏”的魔咒,因为油价波动减弱、美元借款减少、下游行业向好等宏观因素的向好只能改善市场条件,不能“让石头变成鸡蛋”。再说,经济是有周期的。

恒力投资如果注入成真,其盈利基因与能力将直接关系到上市公司的可持续经营能力。

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