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解读:8月制造业PMI回升 经济稳中趋升态势延续

2017-09-05 07:06:47   央广网

“综合以上情况,8月工业增长率比7月提高的概率较大,企业生产经营活跃,资金循环情况较顺畅,近期的经济运行应该呈现出稳中趋升的发展态势。”张立群表示。  

经济增速换挡的底部已经建立

虽然制造业PMI多个分项指标呈现乐观趋势,但是,有观点认为,8月PMI数据也揭示出一些潜在风险。首先,8月制造业PMI数据优于预期主要是因为黑色系等大宗商品的价格提振,而大宗商品价格的上涨又主要是由于环保督查和限产等短期因素。由此,由于8月底大宗商品价格已经出现明显的高位震荡走势,未来随着价格效应的逐渐消退,经济高点可能会出现。此外,出口方面,虽然9月是中国的出口旺季,但人民币可能依然坚挺,同时,美国等国家可能出台针对中国的贸易壁垒和贸易摩擦也不能忽视,这将对外贸环境产生不利影响,外需前景依然不容乐观。

此外,国家统计局还发布了8月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为53.4%,比上月回落1.1个百分点。赵庆河表示,这主要是受不利天气等因素影响,建筑业生产活动有所放缓,但与去年同期基本持平,继续保持在临界点之上,非制造业总体仍延续扩张态势。

张立群认为,非制造业商务活动指数仍保持在53%以上,比制造业水平高,而且持续时间长,反映出非制造业总体发展平稳的态势没改变。但是,应当注意到,非制造业商务活动指数较上月下降1.1个百分点,其变化与金融活动有所降温,以及房地产开发建设等土建活动降温有关。此外,后者与8月份的天气因素影响关系密切,例如台风、高温、强降雨等,对土木建设、在外的施工活动影响较大,也值得关注。

据了解,今年6月以来,非制造业PMI指标持续下滑,从6月的54.9%下降至8月的53.4%,九州证券全球首席经济学家邓海清点评认为,进一步从5个分类指标看,除去投入品价格、销售价格出现进一步回升,新订单指标、从业人员、业务活动预期均出现一定程度的下降,表明非制造业的扩张速度有所放缓。另外,邓海清提醒道,中国经济三大产业的结构中,第三产业对经济的贡献已经超过50%,未来如果非制造业PMI指标进一步下滑,将可能导致经济增速放缓。

而张立群预计,未来整个经济保持平稳增长的概率较大,增长底部已经总体建立,新的增长特征主要表现为经济增长沿着中高速增长的水平线小幅波动,不会像过去有持续向下滑落的态势,这个特征在未来会越来越鲜明。

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