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与舒尔茨相反,辩论一直是默克尔的软肋。民调显示,在默克尔执政12年间所经历过的三次电视辩论中,每次辩论后对手的支持率都呈现上升的趋势。那么,默克尔此次为何能“超常发挥”?
崔洪建表示,“虽然外界认为默克尔不太擅长电视辩论,但是这么长时间的执政,默克尔无论是在个人气质还是气场,或是对政策问题的驾驭上,都具备相当的优势。她对德国政府的方方面面、对德国的内政外交,都已了然于胸。”
而另一方面,舒尔茨及其团队对于这次被外界称作是其最后翻身机会的辩论,似乎用力过猛。据阮佳闻介绍,当晚舒尔茨所属的社民党可以说是为其送上了一次“神助攻”。在电视辩论开始前,网络上就出现了“社民党宣布舒尔茨是辩论‘显而易见’的赢家”一文。尽管社民党事后解释出现这一乌龙是因为技术人员失误操作所致,但网友们并不买账,纷纷留言冷嘲热讽。
“默克尔赢定了”、“比起荷兰英法美,德国此次大选实在是太无聊了”……这些成了近期国际媒体的常见标题。如果默克尔能成功第3次连任,那么她将有望在4年后追平德国前总理科尔,成为联邦德国历史上第2位连续执政16年的总理。
不过,图贝尔特博士更关心的是那些小党派的选票,“目前可能将在德国议会看到六个不同党派,这是从未有过的。如果在9月24日大选中,德国选择党能够获得10%以上的选票,那会对德国政治气氛造成震动。”
崔洪建也认为,即使默克尔能够妥妥连任,也不意味着德国大选就毫无看点。成立于2013年的德国选择党,以旗帜鲜明地打出德国脱离欧元区、恢复边境管制等主张而被视作继承了极右翼政党的衣钵。这样的党派进入德国议会,当然是值得警惕的信号。“这个政党这几年发展很快,德国选择党短期内的迅速发展,包括一些左翼党的发展,对德国未来政治发展发出了一些不太好的信号,值得德国主流政治家重视。”
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