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舒尔茨“新人效应”未能“趁热打铁” 默克尔有望今秋第3次连任
王义桅分析道,“从前年(2015年)开始,尤其是去年,对默克执政最大的打击就是她的难民政策,内外不讨好。国内觉得接收了那么多难民,德国人又很认真,难民来了以后也跟他们生活、享受一样的,就损害了他们社会福利。同时,科龙在任时的性侵案件,又让很多德国人认为这些难民来了以后,导致了很多社会治安的问题。现在看来,在默克尔和欧洲的领导下,这个难民问题逐步得到好转,今年的难民已经比去年减少了一半。从长远上看,觉得她这种政策还是有远见的。现在难民问题还没有完全消除,中东欧国家还是有怨言的。但是,总体上难民危机的冲击在减少。现在,很多欧洲国家主要关心的是恐怖袭击问题,难民问题已经不再是头条了。这就是说,一个有远见的政策,一个更加强调包容的、多元社会的欧洲价值观,从长远上得到了欧洲选民,包括德国选民的认可,但是短期内它会受到一些冲击。默克尔支持率的止跌反弹,证明在政治上需要有长远的周期来检验其政策的合理性。”
舒尔茨缺乏行政经验
有分析认为,缺乏强有力的竞争对手,也是默克尔掌握优势的另一个重要原因。今年1月底,社民党主席加布里尔宣布让位,并且召回了时任欧洲议会议长马丁·舒尔茨,让他来领导社民党。1月初,舒尔茨的“新人效应”一度让社民党的支持率跃升6个百分点,接近30%,但是他之后没能“趁热打铁”。
王义桅表示,舒尔茨在欧洲议会的政治威望并不能转变为在德国国内的政治资本。他作为德国国内政坛“新人”,缺乏行政上的经验。“舒尔茨确实在欧洲、在德国也是有相当政治威望的一位领导人。但是德国是个联邦制的国家,德国的选举更多还是国内政治。在欧洲议会里做的事情不一定能够转化为在德国的政治资本。其次,德国尽管很支持欧洲一体化,但是要完全用一种欧盟的利益来强调德国发展,也不一定能够得到很多备受危机冲击的德国选民心理上的认可。在存在各种危机的背景下,一般来讲,还是偏右的政党获得选民的认同。舒尔茨所在的政党,相对左翼的一些政党强调均贫富的,在经济发展不好的时候,原来是起作用的。在德国经济相对不错的情况下,左派力量的影响可能就不如默克尔这样中右翼的政治势力,更能够带动德国和欧洲走向未来。”
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