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此外,随着特朗普国内施政遇阻,中方预判到,特朗普拿中美经贸问题“说事”的日期临近。“通俄门”丑闻持续发酵,特朗普废除奥巴马医改努力严重受挫,在种族问题上的不当言论和错误立场,白宫人事大幅动荡等等,让特朗普不但未能抽干国内政治泥潭,反在其中越陷越深,关于特朗普将被弹劾、副总统彭斯篡位的传言越来越多。此时,特朗普在对外事务中制造“噪点”,有助于来转移国内政治矛盾焦点。据媒体报道,本来特朗普计划在8月1日就签署上述总统备忘录,但是由于需要与中国协调在应对朝鲜导弹试射问题上的立场,而被迫推迟。
还想特别指出的是,在涉及中国的政策上,特朗普政府的行动还是非常谨慎的。在去年的总统大选中,特朗普对中国说了很多狠话,扬言要在入主白宫后的的第一天就将中国列为汇率操纵国,要对从中国进口的商品征收高达45%的进口关税。现在特朗普执政已经超过200天,才首次推出专门针对中国贸易行动,保持了一定的克制。
此外,此次特朗普签署的是总统备忘录,不是总统行政令。备忘录从行政力上不如行政令强。在备忘录中特朗普要求的是莱特希泽决定是否对中国进行调查,而不是已经得出结论,认定中国做法不当,更不是要求马上对中国采取反制行动。另外,与其他的特朗普签署的多项行政令、备忘录中,特朗普列出明确时间显著不同,在此备忘录中,特朗普并未加上时间限制。这都说明特朗普在涉及中国的问题的拿捏上还是有所考虑的。
由上可见,对特朗普对中国的贸易行动,中国应保持战略冷静。现阶段应继续保持与特朗普政府的政策沟通,加强与美国内各力量派别的接触,宣传中国改革开放取得的进展、中美深化和巩固经贸关系将惠及两国人民和世界。(余翔 中国现代国际关系研究院美国所经济室主任,哈佛大学访问学者)
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