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国际能源格局变化影响几何?

2017-08-16 07:05:54   中国青年网

其三是全球天然气市场寻求新的计价货币,“天然气人民币”呼之欲出。天然气作为一种清洁能源,由于供应充足且价格低廉,其消费增长速度快于石油和煤炭,在全球能源市场所占的份额越来越大。预计,在未来20年,天然气将超越煤炭成为第二大能源;以中国为代表的亚洲市场在全球天然气需求市场中的比重将会从目前的32%上升至50%。国际能源署预测,未来5年全球天然气的消费量将从目前的3.63万亿立方米增加至4万亿立方米。其中90%的新增消费来自发展中经济体,中国占四成。

同时,天然气作为目前全球最重要的大宗商品之一,其交易结算在世界贸易中占有很大比例。而中国已经站在全球天然气消费和进口舞台的显著位置。业内专家呼吁,到了构架“天然气人民币”体系的时候了。与“石油美元”相对应,“天然气人民币”旨在通过人民币作为天然气计价和结算货币,在天然气贸易及相关投资市场中进行广泛运用,建立起在全球天然气市场实行以人民币计价与结算的运营体系。

推出“天然气人民币”,是提升亚洲国家天然气定价话语权的需要。长期以来,东北亚地区作为主要的油气进口地区,存在严重的定价话语权缺失问题。统计显示,2013年,东北亚地区遵循的天然气贸易基准价格为每百万英热单位16.17美元,约等于德国、英国天然气进口价格的1.5倍,相当于美国亨利天然气中心价格的6倍。“亚洲溢价”现象严重损害了东北亚地区的经济利益。在上世纪70年代美元与黄金脱钩后,美国以与沙特签订石油交易协议为起点,逐渐确立“石油美元”体制,锁定了欧美主要石油消费国的利益。随着中国综合国力和经济影响力的进一步提升,人民币国际化的稳步推进,当前不公平的定价机制呼唤建立“天然气人民币”体制,维护亚洲天然气进口国的权益。

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