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四问九寨沟 7.0级地震

2017-08-10 07:33:49   中国青年网

为陇南市

提前19秒预警

为绵阳市

提前49秒预警

为广元市

提前48秒预警

为成都市

提前71秒预警

追问4 地震前是否曾提前预报

蒋海昆回应,目前精确预报仍有难度。我国年度预报的成功率在20%—30%。

今年年初,相关专家曾判定九寨沟所在地区为全国2017年度地震危险区。经研究,今年将甘青川交界处确定为年度6.5级地震危险区。这次地震离这个危险区大概五六十公里,靠近四川一侧。

蒋海昆表示,虽然在年度预测上有所察觉,但在短期预测层面,并没有发现更多线索。一般情况下,3个月的预测为短期预测。蒋海昆说,目前,真正能够产生时效的是短期预测,但这方面仍为预测难点。

在这次地震中,特别要提的是成都提前71秒收到地震预警。

四川省地震预警重点实验室主任、成都高新减灾研究所所长王暾接受记者电话采访时表示,由阿坝市防震减灾局和成都高新减灾研究所(减灾所)联合建设的地震预警系统成功预警此次地震,给成都市提前71秒预警,给陇南市提前19秒预警。

王暾称,统计表明,四川省广元市、成都市、绵阳市、阿坝市、甘肃省陇南市、陕西省汉中市等6个市的11所学校提前5秒—38秒发出预警。还通过包括四川科技等近20个政务微博发布了地震预警信息,还为国家减灾中心、国家预警信息发布中心等提前预警了该地震。

有研究表明,如果能在地震发生时提前20秒预警,伤亡人数可降低63%。

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