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英国付欧盟分手费数额尚无定论 专家:需加速谈判进程

2017-08-07 14:03:00   央广网

分手事宜迟迟未能取得实质性进展,但脱欧带来的影响已经开始显现,国际货币基金组织、英国央行近期纷纷调低了英国的经济增长预期,并警示称外国对英国投资开始呈观望姿态。另外,英镑贬值促进出口的景象也没有出现,伦敦金融城内的一些跨国投资银行也纷纷表示准备向欧洲大陆撤离人员和部分业务。

这样的事态让英国金融业坐不住了,越来越多的人开始怀疑脱欧的“可行性”到底在哪里。在8月的休假高峰期来临之前,英国工商界对英国政府处理脱欧事宜毫无章法的状态感到心急火燎,纷纷行动了起来:新的英国金融协会成立,伦敦证券交易所设立新的特别部门,这一切都是希望能为政府在脱欧谈判中获得最大利益而献计献策,英国企业董事协会更是发布了报告,谏言政府拖延时间,以争取更大利益。

英国金融协会首席执行官史蒂芬·琼斯在协会官网发表文章称,代表英国金融企业在政府脱欧谈判中发声是协会的首要任务,他说:“脱欧谈判已经开始了,对于英国金融协会来说,如何保障英国经济在脱欧的过程中和脱欧后进行考虑周详而节奏适当的转型至关重要。”

与此同时,代表中小企业的英国工商协会近期也积极与唐宁街的政策制定者会面,表达企业主在人才和劳工方面的需求,希望英国政府在与欧盟公民未来居住许可等相关的政策制定上保持理性的态度。

另外,英国最大商业协会英国企业董事协会出台了一份详尽的政府建议书,认为应该用缓兵之计为和欧盟达成理想贸易协定争取时间。协会指出,英国可以提议首先签订一个《里斯本协议》50条的延期条款,在2019年脱欧谈判期限到期之后,继续保留“欧洲经济区”成员一段时间。并要求欧盟给予英国在继续实施欧盟政策方面一定程度的自主选择权、签订过渡性关税协议等。

3月29日英国正式向欧盟提交脱欧信函,6月19日正式启动脱欧谈判,7月20日第二轮脱欧谈判正式结束,按照欧盟的法律,双方需要在2年内,即2019年3月29日前完成分手协议,如果需要延长,应得到所有欧盟成员国同意。

截至目前,英欧之间谈判在重要议题上缺少实质性进展。虽然英国与欧盟就“脱欧”问题的谈判已经进行了两轮,但双方在很多领域都处于僵持状态,王义桅教授表示,其中最主要的一点是“关税同盟”,即今后英国和欧盟的关系到底是什么。一般意义上自由贸易协定加入了欧盟的关税同盟还是更紧密的经济联系,现在不明确。简单形象的说法像北欧模式、挪威模式或瑞士模式和土耳其模式等,瑞士模式是分羹的,显然是不实用的。挪威模式原来谈的比较多,挪威不是欧盟成员国,但他可以进入欧洲单一市场,每年给欧盟支付一定的费用,享受保护他的石油、渔业一些利益。

双方下一轮谈判将在什么时候进行?这一轮谈判具体谈什么?会有什么样新的进展吗?

王义桅教授分析,确实要加速谈判的进程,否则很难完成两年以后脱欧。一旦完不成,英国未来前景更不确定。8月底如果要谈判,他要为10月份的欧盟峰会要提交一个报告,英国脱欧的立场到底是什么,把关键理顺,8月底可能在这方面做出一些进展。英国的不确定性、经济的下滑让英国国内遭到更大压力,而英国感觉到如果再这样脱下去,可能欧洲更加团结,谈判所面临的代价更大,形势对于英国总体上是不利的。

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