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樊纲:人口向大城市集聚还是大趋势

2017-08-07 11:33:15   央广网

陆铭:大城市管理需要供给侧改革

上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院陆铭认为,人口流入城市会带来一定的成本,成本大小与城市规模是密切相关的,但无论是历史经验还是理论研究都表明,城市人口规模和城市病之间的关系是非常复杂的,人口增加往往会产生治理城市病的规模效应。虽然人口增长可能带来更多的成本,但成本增加的速度远小于收益增加的速度。

比如,地铁能够极大地提升城市交通效率、缩短通行时间,而恰恰是人口增长到一定规模,城市才有可能建设越来越多的地铁线路。同样的例子还有治理犯罪的成本问题,当前中国城市治理犯罪成本下降,其中街道监控摄像头的普及是重要原因,而摄像头安装与人口密度和人口规模密切相关。

陆铭(北大国家发展研究院 供图)

陆铭认为,中国大城市目前的问题在于吸引了足够多的大学生,但缺乏足够的低端劳动力,而在市场经济里,这二者是互补的,造成的一个结果是低端劳动力价格变得昂贵,例如北京和上海的保姆月薪超过8000元甚至更高。因而在城市发展进程中,限制低端劳动力供给可能降低高端劳动力生产率以及城市对高端人才的吸引力。

他提出了“治理大城市病”的一些可行方案,其中加强供给侧改革,改善城市的数量、质量、结构和空间布局是最重要的举措。第一,市场和政府要做到真正的互补,让市场成为配置资源的决定力量,同时政府更好的发挥作用。要充分动用价格机制,也要结合行政管理和规划的手段。第二,城市管理要针对行为本身,不能针对特定身份的人。比如控制低技能劳动者的数量反而会抬高城市运营成本,同时造成社会不和谐以及身份歧视等问题。第三,公共服务要覆盖低收入劳动者,而不应简单按照户籍标准落实。

徐林:土地问题是城市化进程的核心问题

国家发改委中国城市和小城镇发展中心主任徐林认为,城市化是一个国家的农村人口向非农产业转移就业,向城市地区集中居住,以及整个社会适应这一变化的过程。理解城市化问题,重点在于整个社会如何适应这个变化。城市化问题是一个制度改革的问题,它不是简单的城市建设或城市规划这类技术问题。中国的城市化过程,除了要考虑2.7亿左右的农村人口转移到各类城市和小城镇,还要考虑9000万左右的人口从小城镇到大城市,整个制度要适应3亿多人口规模的流动问题。在现实条件下,最大的问题是土地制度改革问题。

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