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中国社科院发布拉美白皮书解读过去一年拉美局势

2017-07-04 15:39:55   国际在线

自2012年以来,受全球经济低迷和大宗商品价格下跌影响,拉美经济已经连续5年下滑,2015年和2016年两年更是出现负增长。由于经济形势不断恶化,进入21世纪以来拉美地区整体向好的社会形势出现逆转。多数拉美国家的失业率上升,就业质量下降,贫困反弹,一些已经实现脱贫的人口重新返贫。中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所社会文化研究室主任房连泉说:“就业情况有一个反向的变化。2016年拉美地区失业率是8%,达到了历史新高。同时,就业率持续下降。尽管劳动参与率上升,但是就业比率下降,结果就是失业率上升。新增的失业主要转向非正规就业,也就是自雇者。正规就业也在缩减。减贫形势方面,2013年以来,贫困率呈微幅上升的趋势。同时,每天4-10美元收入的中层阶层规模不断扩大,超过了高收入阶层的规模,在总人口中的比例也超过了三分之一。但是,这一群体的收入可能受危机影响随时会下降,可以称之为‘脆弱阶层’。”

2016年,域外因素和地区政治生态变化极大地影响和改变着拉美地区国际格局及其演变态势。美国大选过程搅乱了地区各国的发展势态,特朗普当选带来了极大的不确定性。此外,中国国家主席习近平出访拉美3国并出席亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议,开启了中国对拉美外交的新阶段。中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所国际关系研究室副主任谌园庭对拉美对外关系做出了3个判断。

谌园庭说:“第一,拉美国家外交政策以及地区国际关系演变的一个突出特点是政治生态变化扭转了对外政策取向,特别是地区大国的动态正在改变地区各国间关系的原有格局。第二,就拉美国家对外关系多样性的努力而言,无论北美、欧洲还是亚太地区,都是其对外关系的主要战略方向,并不存在非此即彼的替代关系。第三,世纪之交以来,拉美中左翼政府在追求自主方向上的作为较为突出,但并未成功借助特定条件下的经济快速增长实现国家发展的根本性改变。拉美主要国家更为趋向自由主义和对外开放的政策却正值北美和欧洲内部民族主义和保护主义甚嚣尘上之际,拉美国家对外关系面临着历史上不曾出现过的另类挑战,其主要发展脉络值得密切关注。”

谌园庭还表示,特朗普政府的拉美政策对美拉关系造成冲击,将中国推到了风口浪尖,所谓“美国筑墙,中国搭桥”。如何把握这一机遇和挑战对中国外交是一大考验。

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