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英国缘何接二连三遭遇恐袭?

2017-06-06 16:34:24   国际在线

而恐怖分子作案手法不断翻新,简易化、模仿性强等特点则是英国疲于应付,防不胜防的技术性原因。

英国多年来强力反恐,虽十多年没有发生严重恐袭事件,但并不意味着其恐怖主义威胁下降,仍是长期处于次高级别水平。在“恐怖主义”借助网络宣传、战地培训等多种手段不断“滋生恐怖主义”等新形势下,英国情报部门对恐怖嫌疑人无法实施有效管控的问题十分突出。英国政府估计,前往伊拉克和叙利亚等地参战的英国人约800人,其中有一半已回到英国。与大陆欧洲国家不同,英国的三起恐袭案侦破速度都很快,但英国反恐的困境在于,对极端分子的监控非常广泛,但仍无法避免悲剧的发生。曼彻斯特案犯曾被警方关注,但案发时其刚从利比亚回国,据称曾在那里受训。伦敦桥涉案嫌疑人也曾被多次举报,但都未能实施有效管控。

接连遭遇恐袭之际,特雷莎·梅的竞选之路蒙上了阴影,民意支持率持续下滑。曼城恐袭正值保守党新竞选纲领新近出台,其社会政策引发中产阶级不满,招致社会强烈反弹,保守党支持率从最初领先最大反对党工党两位数的优势,下降到了个位数,不再稳操胜券。伦敦桥恐袭后,大选的辩论议题已从英国“退欧”、社会政策等直接转向安全问题。相较于科尔宾领导的工党,保守党在安全治理方面的民望原本更高,但由于恐袭频发,不但工党领袖科尔宾、伦敦市长萨科迪·汗指责梅削减预算导致警力不足、反恐不力,甚至有人提出梅应下台以承担责任。如果最终导致保守党无法扩大议席,或联合组阁、或下台,则将成为恐怖主义威胁影响西方国家政治生态的新型标志性案例。(杨芳 中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲所 副研究员)

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