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C919或拉动万亿美元产业链价值

2017-05-16 08:16:05   中国经济周刊

适航取证完成后,飞机能否经受住客户和市场的检验,更是检验民用机项目是否成功的最终标准。

中国商飞C919大型客机专家咨询组成员、ARJ21-700飞机原总设计师吴兴世曾在接受媒体采访时表示,飞机首飞成功后,要进入市场还要分三步:第一步,取得型号合格证,拿到走向市场的通行证;第二步,做好批量生产的准备和客户服务的各种准备,目前先进的民用飞机在一年以前,会把所有为客户准备的工作做好;第三步,通过高效安全的飞行记录进入市场,站稳脚跟,以后在客户服务中间实现发展。

据《中国经济周刊》记者了解,空客公司第一个民机型号A300从酝酿到真正实现商业的成功(销售出300架)经过了15年的坎坷。其1972年10月首飞成功,三年后,真正售出的只有20架,1976年更是出现了在当年5月销售出1架之后持续16个月没有一份订单的情况。直到1981年石油危机凸显出低成本优势后,A300才爬出“市场泥潭”。

相比之下,C919要顺利的多:目前C919已获得全球23家用户的570架飞机订单。

李晓津教授向接受《中国经济周刊》采访认为:“如何更好更快地进入商业应用是我们面临的挑战。目前看来,C919比较注重客户需求,相关技术人员已经理解客户眼中的好飞机是‘安全、舒适、环保、经济’,在此原则下,C919还要继续完善相关细节,比如在安全方面争取美国和欧洲的适航认证,实现国际水准的安全管理;在经济性方面做好与竞争对手的相关对标。总之,在坚持国际采购的前提下更充分地调研航空公司和旅客需求,围绕国内用户特殊需求进行产品完善。特别是未来,C919可能面临更多竞争对手的挑战,不仅波音、空客,包括巴西、加拿大乃至俄罗斯等国的企业都在该领域有丰富的经验。”

商业价值和意义:不仅拉动产业链效益万亿美元,还将倒逼我国工业标准升级

C919首飞前一日,大飞机概念股已提前开启资本盛宴。博云新材强势涨停,宝钛股份、贵航股份、中航飞机等股票集体拉升。

C919“主供”模式有16家材料制造商和54家标准件制造商。业内人士认为,除了对资本市场的助推,长远看C919所带动的经济效益将不可估量。

中国商飞2010年至2029年市场预测年报显示,中国航空运输市场对民用飞机的需求最为强劲,共需补充各型民用飞机4439架,其中150座级单通道客机2950架、双通道喷气客机802架、涡扇喷气支线客机687架,总价值超过4500亿美元。此外,到2029年,全球共需要30230架干线和支线飞机,其中,单通道飞机19921架。

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