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黄河变清调查:绿色巨变藏风险 小水小沙隐患重

2017-09-25 11:27:36   瞭望

专家向《瞭望》新闻周刊记者指出,从大格局上,南水北调西线建成,将形成联系长江、淮河、黄河、海河的“四横三纵”巨大水网。基本覆盖缺水的黄淮海流域、胶东地区及西北部分地区,有利于实现我国水资源南北调配、东西互济的合理配置格局。

对于黄河流域而言,由于调水入黄位置高,可以完全覆盖黄河上中下游缺水区。另外,由于黄河干流巨大的调节库容存在,可以较方便协调黄河来水过程、西线入黄水量过程与河道输沙用水、生态用水、工农业用水过程不一致问题,实现水资源优化配置。

据测算,一期工程的80亿立方米水可为城乡生活、工业增加配置42亿立方米水,确保到2030年重点城市、重要能源基地用水需求;还可向黄河干流河道内补水25亿立方米,进一步协调水沙关系,促进宁蒙及黄河下游河道形态的改善;向黄河黑山峡生态灌区和石羊河流域分别供水9亿和4亿立方米,确保这一重要生态屏障地区生态系统的恢复发展。

也有一些专家指出,跨流域调水是水资源配置的重要手段,但不是唯一手段,只有替代方案都用完了,才应采用这个手段。一些专家认为,只有到了“三个尽头”时,才应启动这一方案:

一是技术尽头。当用尽所有节水措施和增水技术,还不能解决缺水问题时;

二是经济尽头。当解决西北缺水问题成本高过南水北调西线工程时;

三是承受力尽头。当黄河受水区水资源供应达到极限,受水区社会承受力达到极限时。

“黄河之水天上来”。与此同时,近年来,中国科学院院士王光谦组织相关课题组,对黄河源区空中水资源进行研究,提出了“空中调水”的设想。课题组发现,黄河源区每年空中水汽输入量约8700亿立方米,其中3700亿立方米为空中水资源,区域降水量为680亿立方米,降水转化率为16.3%。

科研人员从1997年就开始在龙羊峡以上开展人工增雨试验,到2011年15年间共为黄河增加了38亿立方米的径流,平均每年增加2.53亿立方米。而人工增雨技术存在重大突破的可能,应加速研究并开展相关试验。

责任编辑:周晶晶 CN032
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