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黄河变清调查:每年泥沙减少7亿吨 洪水几率增加

2017-09-25 08:15:28   瞭望

在山东省鄄城县苏泗庄上延工程,《瞭望》新闻周刊记者看到,由于下泄清水能量小,在直河道出现“坐弯”。河势上提后,主溜猛力切割没有防护措施的滩面,导致700米长、300米宽的耕地掉入河中。菏泽市黄河河务局总工程师付帮勤说:“目前继续发展的险情,可能导致大溜直抄苏泗庄工程的后路,淹没滩区1.6万亩耕地,并直冲黄河大堤。”

山东东明县老君堂控导工程共有50多道丁坝,近年来河势不断下挫,以前1到6号坝不靠水,8到15号坝靠主溜,目前主溜已下挫到26至29号坝。导致1500多亩滩地掉入河中。河务部门又加修了三道坝,溜势得到局部控制。

流经河南省开封市境内的黄河

专家指出,泥沙锐减后,清水下泄给未来防洪造就一个新险局。过去高含沙洪水冲左岸就淤右岸,冲一边淤一边,形成较稳定的河道;清水则两边冲刷,引发河道变化;当大洪水来时,极可能顺清水流路行洪;70年苦心修建的各种工程,将有相当一部分发挥不了作用,部分河段功能将受影响。

鉴于目前的河势河情,一些专家建议放弃下游“宽河固堤”方针,沿黄河河槽新修两条大堤,将黄河变为3至5公里的“窄河”,束水攻沙,以改变目前一方面“背着石头撵河”,一方面又有大量工程不靠水、晒太阳的背动局面。专家还指出,修建“窄河”后,黄河下游滩区将得到解放,190万人也无需搬迁,一举两得。

持反对意见的专家认为,虽然目前黄河下游不淤积,但小浪底水库拦沙库容淤满后,将重回淤积状态。“窄河”虽然输沙效率高,但河道淤积抬升速度快,最终难以走出“悬河之中有悬河”的困局;且对目前下游的防洪体系改变过大,不宜轻言实施。

一些专家指出,水少沙多的黄河是世界上最复杂难治的河流,黄河治理应保持战略定力,防止受局部和短时期变化影响产生战略误判。如果能坚定推进国务院2013年批复的《黄河流域综合规划》,进一步完善黄河水沙调控体系,基本可实现现行河道继续行河150年以上的目标。LW

黄河“人沙赛跑”几时休?

虽然入黄泥沙锐减,黄河水沙调控体系建设已取得初步成效,但黄土高原输沙规律未变,黄河下游持续数千年的“人沙赛跑”远未到散场时

黄河水沙关系不协调是流域性的,并非某一点、某一河段,要将其调节到协调,单一工程完不成任务,需要水沙调控体系来完成。

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