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黄河变清调查:每年泥沙减少7亿吨 洪水几率增加

2017-09-25 08:15:28   瞭望

小浪底水库是调控黄河水沙的一张“王牌”,拦沙库容为75.5亿立方米,按原设计,运用14年后拦沙库容基本淤满,但目前仅淤积32亿立方米。

据地质史专家李鄂荣考证,历史上有记载可查的“黄河清”共有43次,最长的一次为1727年,黄河澄清2000余里,持续20多天;新世纪以来的“黄河清”,持续时间之长为历史罕见。

黄河泥沙去哪里了?

自1919年黄河有水文记录以来,黄河实测最高含沙量达每立方米911公斤,年度最大输沙量达39.1亿吨。黄土高原上的泥沙去哪里了?内蒙古鄂尔多斯,陕西延安、榆林,是黄河最重要的沙源,《瞭望》新闻周刊记者沿河走访十多个县,探寻黄河泥沙锐减之谜。

鄂尔多斯过去每年向黄河输沙1.6亿吨,其中易在河道淤积的粗沙1亿吨,占入黄粗沙总量的25%。经过30多年治理,鄂尔多斯水土流失综合治理度达50%。2016年8月17日,鄂尔多斯出现历史极值降雨,由于水土保持措施见效,当地十条入黄一级支流冲淤变化不大;暴雨中心西柳沟推算径流量可达7176立方米每秒,可实际只形成了3000立方米每秒的流量。

近20多年来,黄土高原生态治理成效卓著,正发生着由“局部好转、整体恶化”向“整体好转、局部良好发展”的历史性转变。1999年至2015年,延安累计退耕还林1070万亩,覆盖了当地19.4%的国土面积,植被覆盖度达67.7%。据试验,当坡面生态治理后,使径流不下沟,则沟壑地的径流、泥沙分别减少58%和78%。榆林市一项调查表明,仅由于淤地坝建设,就减少水土流失量三分之一。

水利部黄河水利委员会(以下简称黄委会)提供的数据显示,近20年来,通过水土保持措施,平均每年拦减入黄泥沙4.35亿吨。

专家指出,除生态建设工程外,气候变化、水利工程、经济社会发展也是导致黄河泥沙锐减的重要原因。

黄河流域潼关以上地区共有大型水库26座,中型水库170座,但大多分布在水土流失轻微地区。黄委会等组织的课题组实地走访了90%的大中型水库,分析计算得出近期水库年拦沙1.734亿吨,其中黄河干流水库拦沙0.81亿吨。另外,由于上游水库大量拦蓄汛期水量,导致黄河内蒙古河段淤积严重。目前巴彦高勒至三湖河口已形成268公里长的地上“悬河”,每年淤积泥沙0.52亿吨。

与黄河勘测规划设计公司课题组在黄河中游一路调研中,《瞭望》新闻周刊记者发现晋陕峡谷河段,采沙场星罗棋布。据了解,近十年来,黄河中游地区城镇化提速,在基建和房地产拉动下,出现了“采沙热”。

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