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李伟:我国创新要素配置不合理 资金过多流向房地产
2017-09-14 08:11:23 中国经济网
第二,新旧动能转换取得了一定成效,但任务依然艰巨。
近几年来,通过实施“创新驱动发展”、“中国制造2025”等战略和政策,通过全面深化改革,新动能不断成长,在我国经济增长中起到了越来越大的作用。一是传统产业高端化、智能化改造步伐加快,效益改善,效率提升。今年1-7月,工业技改投资同比增长11.1%,比全国固定资产投资快2.8个百分点;工业机器人产量同比增长57%,新能源汽车增长19.8%;规模以上工业企业实现利润总额同比增长21.2%,比上年同期加快14.3个百分点。上半年,万元国内生产总值能耗同比下降3.9%,清洁能源消费量占比同比提升0.7个百分点。二是中高端产业发展迅速,对GDP增长的贡献率提高。今年1-7月,高技术产业和装备制造业增加值同比分别增长13%和11.4%,分别快于规模以上工业6.2和4.6个百分点。三是新业态、新模式发展迅速。今年1-7月,全国网上零售额同比增长33.7%,增速比上年同期提高6.2个百分点,其中网上商品零售额占社会消费品零售总额的比重比上年同期提升2.2个百分点。四是消费作为经济增长主动力的作用不断显现。今年上半年,最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率为63.4%,远高于资本形成的32.7%和净出口的3.9%。当然也应该清醒地看到,我国新旧动能转换的任务还远未完成。根据宾夕法尼亚大学世界数据表测算,1978年,我国全要素生产率相当于美国的28.2%;2014年,我国全要素生产率提升到了相当于美国43.3%的水平,但与美国的差距依然巨大。联合国工业发展组织的数据显示,2015年,中国中高技术制造业增加值占制造业总增加值的41%,比日本低14个百分点,比德国低20个百分点。
第三,加快新旧动能转换,要牢牢把握全球技术革命和生产方式变革带来的新机遇。
工业革命以来的科技进步和产业发展史表明,人类社会每隔一段时间就会进入科技创新活跃期和产业快速变革期。当前新技术层出不穷,世界处于新科技革命的窗口期。新技术的不断涌现及其所带来的影响,毫无疑问将重构产业格局和生产方式,将在社会经济领域带来一系列挑战,但更主要的是将为各国发展创造一系列新的机遇,有助于各国形成发展新动能。一是新技术将催生新需求,增强经济增长的需求拉动力。技术的变革往往来自于现实的需要,但同时又会激发新的需求。比如:以脑科学、精准医疗为代表的生物医疗技术,将扩大人们在医疗、保健、养生等方面的需求。二是新技术将拓宽产业发展空间,形成经济增长的新支柱。比如:人工智能技术的进步,催生了机器人制造产业;新能源技术的发展,催生了风能设备制造、生物质能源设备制造等产业;量子通讯技术的进步将催生新的通讯产业。三是新技术将改进生产流程,形成新的生产组织模式。比如:信息技术的广泛使用,将会使制造业实现智能化、柔性化生产,不仅能使制造业更好更快地适应市场需求的变化,与市场实现“无缝对接”,大幅减少产成品所占用的生产资源,而且能优化工艺流程,高效地使用各种生产要素。
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