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社科院:北京天津房价将进入“阴跌” 二三线城市将软着陆

2017-08-21 08:57:14   中国经济网

邹琳华分析称,调控政策仍将持续,长效机制框架的雏形已经确立,政策制度不再支持房价的继续快速上涨。中央政治局7月24日召开会议,明确强调要“稳定房地产市场,坚持政策连续性稳定性,加快建立长效机制”。主要一线城市房价调控已见成效,但限购、限贷等政策手段并不会因此放松。随着高库存代表城市沈阳加入限售行列,预计更多的二、三线城市将采取措施抑制住房投资投机需求。长效机制推出步伐加快,广州等12个城市被确定为首批加快发展住房租赁市场的试点城市,广州还明确提出租购房同权,北京拟将原有自住型商品房升级为共有产权住房。租购房同权首次进入政策层面,为发展住房租赁市场指明了方向,将对未来住房市场结构产生深远的积极影响。

据此预计,北京等城市房价快速反弹的概率很小,近期或将进入阴跌阶段。其它热点二三线城市房价也将逐步实现软着陆。

吕风勇建议,从市场供求状况出发,督促房价上涨城市及时调整不合时宜的住房去库存政策;坚持限购、限贷等住房调控政策不放松,稳定房价预期,避免因政策反复造成房价大起大落;注重市场效率,防止限售政策被滥用而影响住房有效利用;全面推进租购房同权,为发展住房租赁市场和建立住房长效机制垫定基础。

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