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连平:不良贷款面临反弹压力 有可能增至1.8%左右

2017-08-16 08:05:23   中国经济网

资产质量下行压力依然存在,不良贷款仍将增长

2017年上半年,随着经济数据出现积极变化,宏观经济阶段性企稳向好趋势凸显,商业银行信用风险压力有所减缓。分析认为,在金融和实体经济双重去杠杆的背景下,受政策影响,短期内部分领域风险仍处于释放阶段,带动商业银行不良贷款继续增长,需重点关注。

“潜在风险依旧较大,不良或将面临反弹压力。”连平说,虽然关注类贷款占比有所下降,但从主要上市银行情况看,2016年末关注类贷款迁徙率为34.94%,为近年来最高值,表明关注类贷款有加速下迁为不良贷款的迹象。此外,2016年末主要上市银行逾期贷款占比为2.77%,逾期贷款和不良贷款之间的差额虽然有所减少,但仍达到5305亿元,且逾期贷款的增加速度仍高于不良贷款增加的速度。这些数据表明仍有相当一部分的贷款风险尚未完全暴露,未来关注类贷款和逾期贷款将对商业银行造成一定的风险压力。

“金融去杠杆”延伸至“经济去杠杆”,部分大型企业信用风险将继续释放。第五次全国金融工作会议明确提出“经济去杠杆”,将主战场从“金融领域”延伸至“实体经济”,并且指出去杠杆的重点在国有企业,处置僵尸企业将成为重要抓手。未来随着国有企业降杠杆的逐步推进和新一轮“僵尸企业”处置工作的启动,部分潜在风险将逐步释放。“尤其是一些生产技术落后、市场前景黯淡的高负债率企业,通过关停、破产重组等措施同步实现“去杠杆”和“去产能”目标后,将会对银行信用风险造成一定压力。”许文兵说。

赵亚蕊认为,隐性债务增加,地方政府债务风险需加以关注。近两年,随着国家出台多项规范地方政府债务相关文件,地方政府融资行为有所规范,地方政府债务风险得到一定缓解。但地方政府实际债务规模仍可能处于较快增长过程。部分地方政府债务余额尤其是政府承诺以财政资金偿还的债务余额有所增加,对地方政府还本付息造成一定压力;个别地方政府及所属单位变相举债行为导致地方政府隐性债务增加。因此地方政府实际债务的增长水平可能仍处于较高水平,未来需要重点关注。

“总体来看,受实体经济去杠杆、处置僵尸企业以及穿透式监管等多种因素影响,短期内信用风险可能继续释放,不良贷款上升趋势仍难以扭转。但随着资金“脱虚向实”,逐步流入实体经济,行业整体资产质量下行态势将进一步减缓,全年商业银行不良贷款率有望保持平稳。考虑到下半年经济增速面临放缓压力,不排除不良贷款率小幅增长至1.8%左右的可能。”连平说,

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