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世界经济面临哪些“灰犀牛”?

2017-08-15 07:14:41   中国经济网

再次是全球主要经济体面临债务过高问题。国际金融协会(IIF)6月份一份报告显示,截至2017年第一季度,全球债务规模已经飙升到217万亿美元,相当于全球GDP的327%。

这里面,一方面是新兴经济体的大规模举债成为全球债务规模上升的重要原因,其债务规模已相当于GDP总规模的218%;另一方面,虽然发达经济体公共债务和民间债务合计削减了超过2万亿美元,但之前过于庞大的债务规模,使得全球经济增长的债务密集度显著上升。最典型当如美国,其国债规模接近20万亿美元,美国公民人均负债约6万美元,债务与GDP之比达到106%,远超过60%的国际警戒线。债务过高的直接后果是驱动经济增长的效率日渐低下,同时造成资产价格泡沫的膨胀直至引发危机。某些发达经济体习惯了通过“借新还旧”或使货币贬值制造通胀来减缓债务压力,积累至一定程度将对世界经济产生巨大风险。

此外,政治风险对世界经济增长的潜在风险也不能忽视。从现实情况看,恐怖袭击、地缘政治冲突、难民问题等彻底解决还待时日。英国脱欧进程、意大利大选、巴西和南非、印度等重要新兴市场国家的国内政治事件随时可能出现新的情况,也有可能成为新的政治风险点。影响最大的莫过于美国特朗普政府政策的不确定性,及其负面的外溢效应。这些情况可能对世界经济和金融市场造成不利影响,波及刚刚出现复苏态势的全球贸易,进而对世界经济增长构成拖累。

需要看到,上述问题的产生与发展由来已久,想有效治理则非旦夕之功。“灰犀牛”事件的解决难点,问题的产生原因极其复杂,在发展过程中相互纠缠、互为因果。这也是全球经济脆弱性增强的重要反映。各方想要在下半年继续推进世界经济平稳增长,有关问题不可不察。(经济日报记者 连 俊)

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