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中国人均财富14万 这个锅怎么背?怎么破?

2016-12-22 04:32:23   北京时间

那有成功过的例子吗?仿佛有。为什么说仿佛呢?相信学过经济学的人都知道经济学界所谓的成功案例:日本和亚洲四小龙。日本经济在战后突飞猛进,经济发展极快,甚至在70年代、80年代日本买断全球的声音可谓到处都是,连自由女神像都穿上了和服。但是,随着经济发展到一定程度,日本的资产泡沫化,尤其是房地产泡沫化极度严重,日本房价高涨猛增,最终结果泡沫破灭,日本经济进入了失落的三十年。而亚洲四小龙呢?这些国家和地区实在太小,香港、新加坡都可谓是一个城市,包括这两个地方其实经济都不景气。

这个时候,我们就迫不得已得到一个无奈的结论:别人的经验实在没法学,别人的教训我们还是好好长长记性吧。

我们这么穷到底怎么办?

从国际的惯例来看,中等收入陷阱的特征比较明显,经济增长放缓,贫富差距变大,城乡差距显著,金融体系脆弱,不动产等投资品价格暴涨。对照一下,仿佛这些问题都有点影子,但是也不至于很严重,那我们拿着镜子照照自己的情况,找找三个办法:

一是产能过剩怎么破?产能过剩可谓是一个普遍性的问题,一些行业产能过剩,从而导致了企业效率低下,人浮于事,企业资源过度浪费,行业员工收入快速下降,如同当今的很多能源行业,钢铁行业,水泥行业等存在这样或者那样的问题,但是由于特殊的企业背景和社会地位,这些企业依靠银行输血,国家补贴勉强活了下来,但是却往往成为了市场的阻碍因素,一方面,让大量的资源被困在这些重资产的行业内,另一方面,让大量的人力被浪费在无意义的岗位上挣扎,这个的结果就是相关行业人员收入的下降,生活困难程度的加深。珠三角、长三角都在想办法“腾笼换鸟”,但是改革的阵痛现在都是在过程中,只有去除了过剩产能,才能实现实体经济的真正发展。

二是人口红利没了怎么办?长期以来中国经济发展依靠的是中国的人口红利因素,中国制造物美价廉,中国也成了世界工厂,但是中国产品附加值不高,生产出来卖不上价,再加上人口红利的消退,企业的利润越来越薄,从而大家的收入增速也就不可能快了,这种“三来一补”的代工生产方式已经难以支撑中国经济的发展,更没办法让所有人的收入得到长足的稳定增长。中国制造的问题在于我们不会创新只会模仿,但是我们看到无论是国产手机,还是国产高铁都已经在国际上取得了压倒性的优势,中国也正在从模仿向自主创新发展,人口红利没有了需要用技术红利来实现替换。

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