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十年后雾霾会消失吗?中科院院士:十年内难治雾霾

2016-11-07 16:54:43   未来网

雾霾已成为生活新常态时,民众无法改变现状,只好竭尽所能规避一切负面结果。雾霾所带来的社会效应、经济效应也在不断发酵。在种种让人无奈的现象背后,治理雾霾成为全社会的关注焦点。而让人更加无奈的是,雾霾的治理所要攻克的难题十分复杂。治理难点

中国环科院副院长柴发合表示,我国常规煤炭占到能源消费的67%,清洁能源占比只有13%,为发达国家占比的1/3到1/4,这是导致雾霾的根本原因。

曾被称为“雾都”的伦敦,也是在煤炭使用上发力治理,才恢复天清气朗的。

美国佐治亚大学历史系副教授麦赫姆指出,伦敦摆脱雾霾的主要手段是禁止家庭和工厂烧煤。为此,它于1956年颁布了《清洁空气法》,自上而下加强监管。此外,当时正值英国传统制造业生产向海外转移,国内开始产业转型,几年时间雾霾状况便减轻,城市的空气质量明显改观。《金融时报》曾引述美国加利福尼亚州空气资源理事会一名前负责人的言论,称这些治理雾霾的经验表明,真正的成功秘诀是“政府选择不需烧煤的经济增长。”

在我国,治理雾霾最大的难点也在于“煤炭”。国内的能源结构以煤炭为主,短期内恐无法下调煤炭的比重。若改变现有能源结构,就意味着对既有的经济发展模式产生触动,这会引起利益争斗,实现起来颇为复杂。

中科院院士、国家气象局前局长秦大河分析,国家费了很大劲才将煤炭在能源消耗的占比从70%降到现在的66%,本世纪中叶将降到55%左右。煤是二氧化碳排放的主要来源,煤的问题短时间解决不了,雾霾也难以治好。

除此之外,他认为雾霾的根治需要重大科学技术的突破来助力。尽管在中美两国共同发表的《中美气候变化联合声明》里,中国明确将清洁能源使用率在2030年提高到20%左右。但他认为,这对彻底解决雾霾问题作用甚微。要解决雾霾,必须要降低每一样产品的能源消耗量。单位GDP能源消耗量如果能够降到三分之一、四分之一,就需要有重大发明。“可惜现在从教育到科学都做得不够,实用技术这部分也不够。”

中国环境保护部总工程师万本太认为,除了能源结构调整这一根本性措施,治理雾霾也应在汽车尾气上发力。

美国洛杉矶也曾受雾霾之困。洛杉矶于1975年通过立法实现了所有汽车都安装尾气净化器,这在治理当地雾霾上是一关键性的技术举措。实践证明,这项举措得到了很好的效果。

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