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周杰:最新日本能源中长期发展规划“新看点”

2018-07-10 12:46:03    中国经济网

其四是首次提出通过淘汰落后低效火力发电技术装备来发展清洁高效火电。火电定位在“实现能源转型和脱碳化目标过渡期的主力电源”,到2030年平均发电效率要求达到44.3%的水平。2017年火电占比仍高达81.6%,其中燃煤发电为30.4%,燃气发电为38.7%,燃油发电为4.1%。2030年的目标则将分别减少至26%、27%和3%。燃煤发电作为基荷电源具有价格低廉、供给稳定的优势,更是扩大可再生能源利用的重要备用电源,但由于其排放和污染严重,必须淘汰低于最新式超超临界(USC)级的落后低效火电技术装备,推进整体煤气化联合循环发电系统(IGCC)、煤气化燃料电池系统(IGFC)等清洁高效的新一代发电技术的应用,加快碳捕获、利用与封存技术(CCUS)的开发。天然气能效高,排放少,供给风险低,是目前重要的腰荷电源。发展高效燃气发电将是日本未来火电转型的重要方向,重点是推广超高温燃气轮机联合发电(GTCC)与燃气轮机燃料电池联合发电(GTFC) 及热电联产技术,加快分布式能源的布局,从而推动工业领域的天然气利用和普及。燃油发电为峰荷电源,石油主要用于应急发电,更多地用于交通运输和化工行业,但在一次能源供给结构中占比则高达四成。基于化石燃料几乎全部依赖进口的现实,日本不仅要尽量在资源供给国分散采购,还要采取提高上游资源自主开发比例,构建灵活透明的国际市场,参与亚洲能源价值链等措施来保障资源供给。油气上游开发比例要从2016年的27%提升到2030年的40%,煤炭上游开发比例要维持在2016年的61%左右。与此同时,加强近海油气资源勘探,加快可燃冰商业开发进程。

其五是将节能和氢能作为应对气候变化政策的重要抓手。节能减排要实现双控目标,即到2030年能耗总量要削减5030万KL,年削减量为280万KL,能耗强度与2012年相比要减少35%。2016年度能耗总量已削减880万KL,年均削减量为220万KL。在建筑领域,新建公共建筑到2020年,新建居民建筑到2030年均要实行“零能耗建筑”法定标准,同时扩大领跑者制度适用范围。家用电器、照明器材、建筑材料等能耗产品在领跑者制度推动下,其能效水平已获大幅提高,例如空调、彩电和冰箱能效比2001年分别提高了28%、71%和252%;在交通运输领域,新能源汽车销售目标到2030年要达到新车市场的50%-70%,同时大力推广自动驾驶技术系统的实际应用;在工业领域,石油危机后日本节能水平已走在世界各国前列,2012年能耗强度与2005年相比减少了34%。但近些年来能效水平一直改观不大。因此,新计划提出必须大量采用人工智能、物联网、大数据以及电力需求自动响应技术,并通过产业链需求侧横向和纵向的连动以及机器设备的融通,突破节能路径瓶颈,实现年均节能1%的目标。另一方面,日本将氢能作为应对气候变化和能源安全保障的一张王牌,氢制备可取自多种多样的一次能源,具有可储可运的优点,为此而制定了建设“氢能社会”的氢能基本战略目标,提出要构建制备、储存、运输和利用的国际产业链,积极推进氢燃料发电,扩大燃料电池及其汽车市场,计划到2030年普及家用燃料电池530万台,普及燃料电池汽车80万台。但当前仍面临技术、成本、制度和基础设施等问题的挑战。

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