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侠客岛:默克尔赢得没悬念?右翼政党崛起隐忧已现

2017-09-26 07:46:54   中国青年网

同时,只有获得超过5%选票的政党才能进入议会;选民选出议会政党席位后,议会再进行内部选举,通过联合组阁等方式构成政府。比如今年的联盟党,获得33%的席位,第一大党,但是显然,必须通过拉拢其他政党的形式,获得议会超过半数的席位组阁。

此前,联盟党经常与第二大党社民党联合组阁,但今年,社民党已经明确表态要当反对党。因此有媒体分析,德国甚至有可能二战后首次在政府中迎来右翼政党。

德国的选举制度之所以这样设计,是为了避免再次选出希特勒式人物的历史悲剧。一个人选两个政党,避免了一党独大,也避免了能够煽动情绪的候选人上台。

以美国和法国为代表的总统制国家,总统顶多连任两届;德国实行内阁制,法律不限制任期,总理可以无限连任。这样的政治安排跟德国特殊的议会选举制结合在一起,就非常利于大党稳定的长期执政,遏制了小党或者新兴政党崛起。

但6个政党进入议会,以及右翼政党崛起的现实,意味着长期稳定的政治传统即将迎来变局。这场变局,相当大的原因,可能就在于默克尔面临的最大挑战:难民。

难民

根据《德国之声》,2015年,德国的难民数量在110万人左右;德国财政部内部预测,2016-2020,德国可能平均每年要新接纳50万难民,总数达到360万。这些难民大多来自中东和北非,阿尔及利亚、叙利亚数量最多。

伴随难民而来的是社会问题。

比如最近有一个很轰动的新闻,一些德国的低保人员,因为捡瓶子去卖钱,被判处了300多欧元的罚金。因为按照德国的法律,这些瓶子不归他们所有,所以钱也不是他们的。此事经媒体报道后,许多德国民众感到愤怒——在他们看来,这些人没偷没抢、自食其力,为什么要罚款?他们的理由是,反观难民,不仅住在难民营食宿不愁,每个月还有320-350欧元的零花钱。这些钱乘以难民基数,可想而知公共财政多出来的开支有多大。

还有件事。由于信息保护,德国很多数据没有联网。有一个难民就用了12个假身份在12个难民营注册,骗取了45000欧元的补助(32万人民币)。这还不是个例。有数据显示,光是北部小城布伦瑞克,就有300多起类似的“骗保”的立案,难民骗取金额超过500万欧元;

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