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经合组织的报告分析,欧元区经济增长的主要动力是超低利率和良好信贷条件让经济发展和投资受益;伴随着家庭可支配收入增加和就业改善,家庭消费正以每季度0.4%的幅度增加,也起到一定推动作用;此外,世界经济的积极发展势头增加了外部需求。
“强劲的数据显示,欧洲经济复苏已经进入自债务危机爆发以来的最好阶段。”比利时布吕格尔经济研究所高级研究员索特·达瓦兹对记者表示,欧洲消费者信心也达到10年来新高,预计今年下半年,随着英国“脱欧”带来的威胁以及成员国政治风险的逐步退散,欧洲消费者信心将进一步强化,欧元区经济有望迎来以消费支出为驱动力的增长。
在经济不断向好的同时,欧洲各国特别是此前陷入危机的国家,推进结构性改革依然是重中之重,也是维持增长之根本。分析认为,欧元区目前的经济复苏,在一定程度上得益于欧洲央行超宽松货币政策的效果显现。但是从长远来看,货币政策不可能长期发挥作用,只有通过结构性改革才能为区域内经济增长提供持久动力。
经合组织首席经济学家凯瑟琳·曼指出,目前商业投资和贸易的复苏较弱,仍需要更多的私营部门投资,才能让经济增长势头进一步扩展。“我们必须在结构性改革方面加倍努力,助力投资复苏,提高生产率,确保经济恢复的红利惠及各方。”
欧盟经济事务专员莫斯科维奇也表示,欧元区经济和政治形势的改善,意味着区域内各国必须迅速行动,加强改善经济治理。“现在,欧元区是进一步推进结构性改革的时候了。”莫斯科维奇认为,局面好转的时候不应停滞改革,而应充分利用良好的经济形势这一有利条件,加紧推进必要的改革措施实施。(吴 刚 王 远)
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