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当然,世界核能发展也面临着一系列经济、安全和环境方面的挑战,如资金来源、铀资源可获得性、核废料处理、核技术安全性、公众接受度、核设施和人员的老化、核不扩散、页岩气竞争等问题。主要表现在:
一是资金投入大,投资周期长。核电项目技术高度复杂,对地质、水文、气候、周边人居环境等有非常严格的安全要求,资金投入量巨大,建设周期长,一般需要5—10年时间,投资成本回收期长。
二是公众的接受程度制约着核电的发展空间。公众对于发展核电的忧虑主要体现在核事故、核扩散、核电站高昂的建设成本、核恐怖主义和核废料的处置等方面。日本福岛核事故,在全球范围内引发了一波反核高潮。美国尤卡山核废物处置库因公众反对未能按计划建设,瑞典和德国因公众的抗议而被迫实行弃核政策。
三是核能扩张和核原料消费量上升加大了核扩散与核恐怖主义的风险。核扩散的风险仍然存在,特别是在政局动荡和社会冲突频发的中东和非洲国家。当前,恐怖主义、宗教极端势力的活跃成为制约核电工业稳定发展的重要消极因素。
最后,美国页岩气革命和可再生能源的成本下降对核能发电形成冲击。页岩气革命导致美国天然气产量快速扩张,天然气价格下跌了50%,天然气发电的成本大幅下降。同时,美国政府给予核电的补贴很少,而提供给风电等可再生能源发电的补贴较多。页岩气革命和财政政策的冲击,导致威斯康星州的基瓦尼核电站和佛蒙特州的扬基核电站因运营亏损而关闭。
(王永中 万 军 作者单位为中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所)
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